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If you wander into the marketplace of metrics, you will find one called the Shiller P/E-crafted by a chap with a Nobel prize and probably far too much free time-used to smooth out the cyclic chaos of corporate earnings, much like a philosopher smoothing his philosopher’s beard after a long day pondering the nature of business cycles. It divides the current value of the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.03%) by the inflation-adjusted earnings over the last decade-a period which, if recorded as a novel, would be titled “The Long, Long Tale of Excess and Hangovers.” The long-term average hovers around 17, but currently, the ratio is straining at roughly 40-like a over-fed bat trying to squeeze through a tiny hole. Historically, whenever this ratio has lingered above 30 for extended periods, the market has experienced a downturn of at least 20%. The only time it reached beyond 40 was during the dot-com bubble-a period where everyone thought the internet was an infinite jug of moonshine that would keep fueling the party forever.

Things That Make Me Nervous (But Probably Shouldn’t):

The fund, in its quarterly SEC communiqué, revealed a reduction in its GEO Group holdings, now amounting to a mere 159,799 shares valued at $3.27 million. Such a maneuver, while seemingly abrupt, is less a flight of fancy than a calculated ballet with the specter of volatility. The change in position, an estimated $22.75 million, mirrors the capriciousness of the market itself.

Yet, even a modest commitment-say, half that amount-can yield remarkable results if sustained over decades. Historical stock market data suggests that consistent investment of $375 each month into the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) could, over thirty years, grow into a portfolio approaching $800,000. That sum would generate an annual dividend income of about $13,500-a modest dividend, but significant when viewed in the context of a person’s entire financial plan. The lesson remains: patience and discipline are the investor’s most reliable allies.

Gold, that ancient alchemist’s dream, has surged 74% in 2025, reaching $4,562 per ounce, a figure that would make even the most stoic banker clutch his chest. Silver, ever the mercurial companion, has outdone its cousin with a 175% leap, nearing $80 per ounce. Both metals now outpace the S&P 500’s meandering path, as if the stock market itself had succumbed to a fit of existential doubt.