usdaed

The stock, you see, has been doing well. Better than most. Up about 15% this year, which in the grand scheme of things, is merely a blip. A pleasant blip, admittedly, but a blip nonetheless. The question isn’t whether Costco is running well. They’re good at that. Always have been. Like a well-oiled machine, churning out savings and oversized pretzels. No, the real question is whether all that goodness is already baked into the price. And that, my friends, is where things get tricky.

By the closing bell, the share price had rather smartly climbed, leaving one to suspect someone, somewhere, actually knows what they’re doing.

BYD, it appears, has surpassed even the celebrated Tesla in revenue – a feat akin to a provincial playwright outshining a West End production. Some 4.6 million vehicles bear the BYD emblem, a number that speaks of ambition, if not necessarily of lasting dominion. The stock, however, tells a different tale – a cautionary one, perhaps. It has suffered a decline of nearly 20% in the last twelve months, a circumstance that reminds us that even the most promising ventures are subject to the whims of the market. A 3% dip in recent quarterly sales merely confirms that fortune is a fickle mistress.

Now, Nvidia. The name itself sounds like something out of a particularly gloomy Eastern European fairytale. They make the… well, the bits that make the thinking happen. Graphics Processing Units, they call them. Fancy rocks that do sums very quickly. Meta is one of their biggest customers, naturally. It’s a bit like a dragon ordering a particularly large quantity of fire polish. But Meta isn’t entirely loyal. They dabble with Advanced Micro Devices – the AMD, as they’re known – and even attempt to forge their own magical components. A bit ambitious, perhaps. Like a goblin trying to build a cathedral.

The exposure of established financial institutions to these pure-play quantum enterprises is, upon closer inspection, remarkably limited. It is a peculiar phenomenon, this illusion of widespread institutional investment. One observes a surge in capital directed towards the sector, only to discover that the vast majority originates not from discerning hedge fund managers actively assessing long-term viability, but from the passive mechanisms of exchange-traded funds and index trackers. Thus, when one notes BlackRock’s reported ownership of a substantial shareholding in IonQ, it is a mistake to infer a considered endorsement. The transaction is merely a consequence of IonQ’s inclusion within the Russell 2000 index, a mechanical consequence of its size, not a judgment upon its prospects.

By the bell’s final clang, the stock price had risen, a paper blossom in the concrete garden of the market. But let us not mistake a temporary lift for genuine growth. The question isn’t merely whether the numbers climb, but who benefits from this ascent.

I find myself unable to participate in this collective delusion, to add my coin to the pile. Not because the company is failing – far from it. But because the price, the very valuation, demands a perfection that no earthly enterprise can sustain. It is a precarious perch, this expectation of flawless execution, and one I suspect will ultimately prove unsustainable.

Novanta, you see, is in the business of makin’ the things that make things. Photonics and precision motion, they call it. Fancy words for makin’ light dance and gears turn, mostly for medical contraptions and industrial machinery. They don’t build the whole shebang, just the bits that need a touch of cleverness.