One does occasionally stumble across sectors that are, shall we say, brimming with optimism. The electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicle – or eVTOL – market is, decidedly, one of them. Two names currently dominate the conversation – though “dominate” feels a touch strong, doesn’t it? – Archer Aviation (ACHR 10.57%) and Joby Aviation (JOBY 5.06%). Both are, naturally, speculative ventures. One might even venture to describe them as… ambitious.
The question, of course, isn’t whether they’re trying to achieve something rather extraordinary – airborne commuting, really – but which, if either, will actually manage it over the next decade. It’s a bit like backing horses, isn’t it? Except the horses are made of carbon fibre and powered by lithium-ion batteries.
The Devil, As Always, Is in the Details
Both Archer and Joby are currently engaged in the rather crucial business of obtaining FAA approval for their respective aircraft. And both, with a commendable lack of originality, are partnering with Nvidia to develop autonomous flight technology using their IGX Thor platform. One begins to suspect the tech companies are doing rather well out of all this. However, despite these similarities, they aren’t precisely mirror images.
Joby, one gathers, intends to operate its fleet as air taxis – a thoroughly modern concept, though one can’t help but picture a slightly frantic scramble for boarding. They’re scheduled to launch a service in Dubai this year, and have wisely acquired existing helicopter ride-hailing and aerial delivery services from Blade and, rather cleverly, Uber back in 2020. A touch of practicality, you see.
Archer, on the other hand, boasts a claimed $6 billion order backlog. A rather impressive number, though one wonders how many of those orders are contingent on, shall we say, a successful outcome. They also purchased Hawthorne Airport in Los Angeles, presumably to avoid the tiresome business of renting hangar space. A sensible move, if a touch extravagant.
Archer, it must be said, has been rather prodigal with its cash. Revenue generation remains, shall we say, a work in progress. Joby, however, recently posted a surprisingly robust Q4 2025 earnings report. Lower-than-expected cash burn is always encouraging, even in this rather volatile sector.
Both companies are, undeniably, richly valued. And, let’s be frank, rather risky. However, if one were forced to place a wager – and, as a market analyst, one is perpetually forced to do so – Joby appears, at this juncture, to be the slightly more… stable proposition. Though “stable” is, perhaps, too strong a word. Let us simply say, less likely to vanish into a puff of lithium smoke.
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2026-03-03 17:53