Terex: A 67% Rally & One Fund’s Exit Strategy

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So, Terex (TEX 0.83%) stock is up 67% in a year. Good for Terex. Really. But Lodge Hill Capital just dumped its entire $27.16 million stake. Which is… a choice. It’s like being at a really good party and then just quietly slipping out the back door. No explanation. Just… gone. SEC filings are so delightfully passive-aggressive, aren’t they?

What Happened, Exactly?

Lodge Hill Capital apparently decided that Terex, despite the impressive stock climb, wasn’t a member of its inner circle anymore. They sold 529,450 shares in the fourth quarter. It’s the financial equivalent of Marie Kondo-ing your portfolio. Does it spark joy? Apparently not enough.

Let’s Talk About What Else They’re Holding

While they were busy decluttering Terex, Lodge Hill Capital seems pretty keen on these guys:

  • NYSE:RKT: $42.71 million (8.07% of AUM)
  • NYSE:APO: $42.40 million (8.01% of AUM)
  • NYSE:BCO: $39.69 million (7.50% of AUM)
  • NYSE:OC: $35.65 million (6.74% of AUM)
  • NYSE:HRB: $34.86 million (6.59% of AUM)

So, a lot of financial services and housing. Makes sense. It’s like they’re building a fortress of… well, finance. Very meta.

Terex: The Cliff Notes Version

Terex makes the stuff that builds other stuff. Aerial work platforms, material processing machinery, cranes… basically, if you need to lift something heavy or crush something, Terex probably has a machine for that. They operate in two segments: things that go up (Aerial Work Platforms) and things that…process materials (Materials Processing). It’s a surprisingly straightforward business model, which, in this economy, is almost radical.

Here’s a handy table, because who doesn’t love a good table?

Metric Value
Revenue (TTM) $5.42 billion
Net income (TTM) $221.00 million
Dividend yield 1%

So, What Does This All Mean for Investors?

Terex is in the middle of a “structural shift.” That’s corporate-speak for “we’re changing things, and we’re hoping you won’t notice until it’s too late.” They merged with REV, which is either a stroke of genius or a recipe for disaster. Honestly, it’s probably a bit of both. Full-year 2025 sales hit $5.4 billion, with adjusted EPS of $4.93. Free cash flow was a respectable $325 million. Bookings jumped 32% year-over-year, which is… encouraging. Management is now predicting $7.5 to $8.1 billion in sales for 2026. Ambitious. Very ambitious.

But here’s the thing: after a 67% stock rally, trimming exposure might just be… sensible. It’s like realizing you’ve eaten 80% of the cake and deciding maybe you shouldn’t have that last slice. Compared to their other holdings (financials, housing), Terex is a bit more… cyclical. Which is a polite way of saying it’s more likely to go down when the economy does.

The big question is integration. If REV synergies materialize (and that’s a big if), and the backlog converts cleanly (another big if), margin expansion could follow. But tariff exposure, leverage, and industrial cycles remain… variables. The setup is stronger, yes, but it’s still a moving target. It’s like trying to assemble IKEA furniture while riding a unicycle. Possible, but not recommended.

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2026-03-02 20:10