Peloton & Uber: A Mildly Anxious Investor’s Take

The internet, you know, promised us jetpacks. Instead, we got Peloton and Uber. Both rely on this… digital magic, this ability to sell us things we didn’t know we needed while standing in our own living rooms. I’m an investor, which mostly means I spend a lot of time looking at charts and pretending to understand what they mean. It’s a bit like reading tea leaves, except the leaves are numbers and the future is usually disappointing.

Peloton, once the darling of the lockdown crowd, is down 98% from its peak. It’s like watching a very expensive houseplant slowly wither. Uber, meanwhile, is only 25% off its high, and has actually increased 126% in the last three years. A relative success story, I suppose, if you consider that most of us are just trying to avoid complete financial ruin.

Which is the better buy? Well, that’s what everyone wants to know, isn’t it? As if there’s a simple answer. I’ve learned that if something seems too good to be true, it almost certainly is. And if it’s cheap… well, that’s usually a red flag, or maybe just a faded one.

Don’t Be Seduced by the Discount

Peloton is undeniably cheap right now. The price-to-sales ratio is under 0.7. It’s practically giving itself away. My Aunt Mildred, who still thinks the internet is a series of tubes, keeps asking me if I should buy a bunch. She imagines a future where she leads Peloton classes from her sunroom. It’s a charming image, but profoundly unrealistic.

I suspect it’s a trap. The company’s revenue was down 3% year over year, and 38% from its 2021 peak. It’s shrinking, slowly but surely. The user base is also declining. It reminds me of my attempts at learning the ukulele. A lot of initial enthusiasm, followed by a gradual realization of my limitations.

The market for $4,000 exercise bikes is limited, it turns out. And when you can find perfectly good workout videos on YouTube, the appeal of a subscription app starts to fade. I tried the app once. It was…intense. The instructor kept yelling motivational slogans. It made me want to lie down and eat cookies.

Uber: The Slightly Less Terrible Option

I’m leaning towards Uber. Not because I’m particularly optimistic about the future of transportation, but because it feels… less doomed. There are three reasons, at least, that I’ve managed to convince myself of.

First, the whole autonomous vehicle thing. Everyone’s worried about robots taking over, but I suspect the technology is further off than we think. Uber, with its 200 million users, has a decent position to navigate that transition, if it ever happens. They control the demand, which is something. It’s like having a reservation at a popular restaurant, except the restaurant is a ride in a slightly questionable vehicle.

It’s also possible that self-driving cars just…don’t work. Or that people don’t trust them. My Uncle George refuses to use ATMs. He says they steal your money. I suspect it’s just a fear of technology, but who am I to judge?

Uber’s financial performance is also encouraging. Revenue and operating income are projected to grow at a respectable rate. It’s scalable, which is a fancy way of saying they can make more money without having to work too much harder.

And finally, the valuation. A price-to-earnings ratio of 15.6 isn’t terrible. It’s not a steal, but it’s not outrageous either. It’s like finding a slightly used book at a reasonable price. It might not be a first edition, but it’s still a good read.

Of course, I could be completely wrong. That’s the nature of investing. It’s a gamble, really. A carefully calculated gamble, perhaps, but a gamble nonetheless. And sometimes, the best strategy is just to sit on the sidelines and watch the world burn.

2026-03-02 17:12

Don’t Be Seduced by the Discount

Uber: The Slightly Less Terrible Option

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