Lucid’s Troubles & A Feller Sellin’ Stock

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Now, there was a time when folks got all riled up about these here electric contraptions, and Lucid, that was one of the names they were hollerin’ about. A right handsome machine, they said, but handsome don’t fill the coffers, does it? Seems Eric Bach, a feller who used to be a big shot at Lucid—senior vice president of product and chief engineer, no less—has been unloadin’ a considerable pile of stock. Millions of dollars worth, mind you. Nearly four million, if you’re keepin’ score. He left the company last November, see, and a man’s gotta look after his own interests. Can’t say I blame him a whit.

Early February brought word of two sales. One for $2.8 million, and another near $1.2 million. Now, some folks on Wall Street will spin you a yarn about this bein’ some sort of signal, a dark omen, if you will. But a man sellin’ what he owns ain’t necessarily a sign of the apocalypse. It’s just… business. Though, it does make a body wonder, don’t it?

Lucid’s stock, it’s taken a tumble since Mr. Bach announced his departure. Down near forty percent, they say. I was arguin’ back then that the stock was priced higher than a Mississippi steamboat captain’s pride, and it seems the market’s finally come around to seein’ things my way. A feller can’t build a fortune on air and promises, no sir.

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A 2026 That’s Lookin’ Cloudy

The trouble with these newfangled companies, see, is they’re always lookin’ for the next dollar. Lucid, they’ve been dilutin’ shares like a bartender waterin’ down whiskey. Since goin’ public, they’ve increased the number of shares floatin’ around by ninety percent! Ninety percent, I tell you! And the price of those shares? Slumped nearly as much. It’s a right peculiar way to build a lasting enterprise, if you ask me.

Now, a little dilution ain’t always a bad thing, if a company’s headin’ for profit. But I reckon Lucid’s a good long ways from that promised land. Tesla and Rivian, they’ve shown that gettin’ an affordable model to market is the key to sellin’ enough of these machines to turn a profit. Lucid? Well, they’re still chasin’ that rainbow, it seems to me. They had trouble enough gettin’ their fancy, high-priced model off the ground, let alone a machine the common man can afford.

Here’s the rub, friends. Lucid’s worth about $3.3 billion. Rivian’s valued at over $15 billion, and Tesla? Why, Tesla’s market cap is higher than a stack of silver dollars reachin’ to the moon! That makes it mighty difficult for Lucid to raise money without givin’ away a piece of the pie to every Tom, Dick, and Harry. And a diluted pie ain’t a tasty one, no sir.

The analysts reckon Lucid will lose a heap of money in 2026, even with sales expected to climb eighty percent. Eighty percent, mind you! But they’re still years away from turnin’ a profit. So, while they may sell more machines, they don’t have the cash, or the stock price, to expand without dilutin’ shares again and again. Enough dilution to drown any gains ordinary investors might make. It’s a sorry state of affairs, if you ask me.

Now, why is Mr. Bach sellin’? Maybe he just wants to sever ties with his former employer. Or maybe he sees the same storm clouds gatherin’ on the horizon that I do. From a purely investment standpoint, I understand his decision. A feller’s gotta look after his own interests, after all.

I ain’t convinced Lucid can succeed without dilutin’ shareholders into oblivion. They do have a strong backer in Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, who owns more than half the shares. But what’s best for Saudi Arabia may not be what’s best for the little feller. It rarely is, if we’re bein’ honest.

Without a clear path to launchin’ affordable models without raisin’ a whole lot more cash at a rock-bottom price, I’m leavin’ this once-promisin’ EV stock for others to figure out. There’s plenty of other fish in the sea, and I’d rather cast my line somewhere the water’s a little clearer.

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2026-03-01 20:53