
The current anxieties regarding software equities—a distinctly tepid start to the annum—are, predictably, centered on the specter of Artificial Intelligence. A rather clumsy moniker, wouldn’t you agree? As if intelligence were a substance to be artificially added, rather than a capacity revealed. The concern, as articulated by the more excitable amongst us, is that these emergent AI ‘agents’—little digital mimics, really—might, with their unsettling capacity for autonomous task completion and even, dare we say, code generation, somehow disrupt the established order. A rather vulgar notion, this fear of obsolescence. It assumes a static universe of value, rather than the beautifully chaotic dance of adaptation. Yet, the companies possessing the deepest, most exquisitely cultivated relationships with their clientele—those who’ve truly listened—are, unsurprisingly, poised to leverage this technological tremor to fortify their platforms and, consequently, enhance their appeal to those who allocate capital.
Enterprise expenditure on software, despite the prevailing tremors of uncertainty, continues its inexorable ascent. A recent report from Gartner—a firm whose pronouncements, while rarely poetic, are generally grounded in a meticulous, if somewhat pedestrian, analysis—projects a minimum 15% increase, cresting $1.4 trillion this year. Microsoft (MSFT 2.17%) and ServiceNow (NOW 1.16%), both having experienced a recent, and rather unseemly, bout of market correction, nonetheless exhibit a resilient momentum in their respective performances. A curious paradox, wouldn’t you say? The market, in its capricious wisdom, often punishes success before rewarding it.
Microsoft
Microsoft. The name itself evokes a certain bland ubiquity. It is, after all, woven into the very fabric of modern existence, employed by millions, a silent partner in countless endeavors. Its flagship suite, Office, has endured decades of competition from the free and open-source alternatives—a charmingly idealistic, if ultimately impractical, movement. Yet, Microsoft persists, its revenue stream a stubbornly consistent flow. The company, it seems, understands a fundamental truth: people will invariably pay a premium for polish, for the illusion of effortless efficiency, for the subtle reassurance of a well-designed interface. The recent integration of ‘Copilot’ features—a rather grandiose name for an automated assistant—across Excel, Word, and the rest of the suite has demonstrably increased this willingness to pay. In the quarter ending December, Microsoft 365 commercial cloud revenue experienced a 17% year-over-year surge, bolstered, in part, by a noticeable increase in average revenue per user. A clear indication that customers are perceiving a tangible value in these augmented offerings. The company is not merely selling software; it’s selling potential.
Enterprises, too, are increasingly turning to Microsoft Azure for their cloud-based needs. The recent unveiling of the Maia 200 AI chip—a rather understated announcement, considering its potential implications—signals a commitment to lowering computational costs and improving efficiency for those engaged in AI workloads. Revenue from Azure surged 39% year over year last quarter—a figure that, while impressive, is perhaps less about technological breakthrough and more about the sheer inertia of scale. The cloud, after all, is less a destination and more a gravitational pull.
Competition in the AI cloud arena is, naturally, intensifying. And the precise impact of these AI agents on the software landscape remains, to put it mildly, uncertain. But Microsoft, with its staggering $160 billion in cash flow generated over the past year, possesses a distinct advantage—a financial fortitude that allows it to not only weather the storms but to actively shape the future. The companies with the resources to invest in data centers and chips—the very infrastructure of the digital age—will be best positioned to remain at the forefront of innovation and, ultimately, reward their shareholders. Microsoft, in essence, is an alchemist, transmuting code into capital.
Following the recent market correction, the stock currently trades at roughly 24 times forward earnings, with analysts projecting around 14% annualized earnings growth. A rather attractive price-to-growth ratio, wouldn’t you agree? A bargain, almost. Though, of course, bargains rarely remain so for long.
ServiceNow
ServiceNow. A name that evokes a certain… efficiency. The company specializes in automating a remarkably broad range of tasks—from handling customer service requests to facilitating app development and providing IT support. It generates virtually all of its revenue from subscriptions—a business model that, while lacking the dramatic flair of, say, a revolutionary new product, provides a remarkably stable and predictable revenue stream. A slow and steady accumulation of wealth, if you will.
The stock has experienced a rather precipitous decline—down 33% year to date—fueled by anxieties regarding competition from these emergent AI agents. But there is, as yet, no discernible evidence of weakness in the company’s fourth-quarter results. Subscription revenue increased by 21% year over year—only slightly below its three-year average growth rate. It secured 35 deals valued at $1 million or more for its AI suite, Now Assist—a figure that suggests a continued demand for its services. A quiet resilience, if you will.
Management has noted an acceleration in new business deals and “substantial growth” in licensed users, workflows, and transactions. Notably, it has guided full-year 2026 subscription revenue to increase by 20.5% to 21% year over year. This guidance is significant—a clear indication that management remains confident in its ability to deliver sustainable growth. A company that knows its trajectory, and isn’t afraid to telegraph its intentions.
AI is evolving at a dizzying pace, but ServiceNow is not merely reacting to these changes; it is actively shaping the future. “We are building the AI control tower for business reinvention so enterprises can operate securely in an agentic AI world,” declared CEO Bill McDermott—a rather grandiose pronouncement, but one that hints at a bold vision. A company that isn’t content to simply automate tasks, but to orchestrate entire ecosystems.
The stock’s recent collapse has pushed the forward P/E down to about 25—an attractive valuation for a company still guiding for strong growth. Before the decline, the stock traded around 50 times forward earnings—a valuation that, frankly, bordered on the absurd. Given management’s optimistic outlook, it appears to be a worthwhile investment at these levels. A bargain, perhaps, for those with the patience to wait for the market to recognize its true worth.
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2026-03-01 15:22