Rigetti: A Quantum Fizzle?

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Now, Rigetti Computing – a name that sounds suspiciously like a particularly nasty brand of cough syrup – once enjoyed a glorious, bubbly rise. Investors, bless their optimistic hearts, sent the shares soaring past $58. But alas, like a poorly constructed tower of gingerbread, it’s tumbled down to around $16. The question, you see, isn’t can Rigetti build a quantum computer, but should we be paying such a hefty price for the promise of one?

Recent hiccups haven’t helped. The delay of Cepheus-1-108Q – a machine with a name that feels like a villain in a science fiction comic – and a bit of a stumble in a government program have added to the woes. It’s a bit like promising a chocolate factory and delivering a slightly dented biscuit tin.

The Rigetti boosters point to partnerships with Nvidia – a chipmaking giant with pockets deeper than the Mariana Trench – and other government types. Fine and dandy, but headlines and hopeful whispers don’t pay the electricity bill. Rigetti needs to conjure up some real, honest-to-goodness money, and quickly.

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The Bullish Brew

Now, in the best of all possible worlds, Rigetti conjures up some genuine breakthroughs. Not just little tweaks and fiddles, but proper, earth-shattering advances. They scale up, land contracts worth a mountain of money (not just a handful of shillings), and by 2031, revenue is soaring past $100 million. Margins improve, profitability beckons… a lovely thought, isn’t it? In that case, the stock could leap to two or three times its current level. But a lot has to go right, and it needs to happen at a gallop.

The Quantum Conundrum

Useful quantum computing has been “five years away” for longer than I’ve been counting grey hairs. There’s been progress, yes, but the gap between laboratory marvels and something you can actually use remains enormous. It’s a chasm, really. And Rigetti isn’t just battling other quantum hopefuls; they’re up against the giants: Alphabet, IBM, Microsoft. These behemoths have R&D budgets that could buy Rigetti several times over. If it takes much longer than five years, Rigetti could find itself in a rather sticky situation.

They’ve got a bit over $450 million in the bank, which buys them roughly five years of breathing room at the current rate of spending. But that assumes nothing changes. Expenses, naturally, will likely ramp up as they scramble to keep pace with the competition. More capital will be needed, and likely a lot of it, which will dilute existing shareholders – a rather unpleasant side effect. It’s happened before, you see.

What the Next Five Years Hold

My prediction? Technological advances will continue, but truly viable commercial computing will remain just over the horizon – always just out of reach. Revenue will grow, but not nearly enough to justify the current valuation. It’s a bit like chasing a particularly slippery eel.

I don’t possess a crystal ball, nor am I a quantum physicist. I can’t say for certain when – or if – commercially viable quantum computing will arrive. But I can say with some confidence that there’s far too much uncertainty, and frankly, hype, to justify investing in a company valued at $5.5 billion, trading at over 600 times sales. It’s a bit like paying a king’s ransom for a bag of air.

I’d rather get my quantum exposure through a company that doesn’t need quantum to succeed in the next few years – or ever. Alphabet, for example. A solid, dependable sort of company. One that doesn’t rely on promises and pixie dust.

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2026-02-27 22:02