Prediction Markets: Three Stocks for Considered Investment

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The proliferation of prediction markets is a phenomenon not to be dismissed. In the past year, trading volume has increased fourfold, reaching $63.5 billion. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket garner attention, though remain, as yet, beyond the reach of public investment. The opportunity, therefore, lies not in following the herd, but in discerning where genuine value resides – often in places overlooked by the prevailing enthusiasm.

Intercontinental Exchange

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE +1.48%), parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, recently committed $2 billion to Polymarket. The headlines focused predictably on the elevation of Polymarket’s founder to the ranks of the young and wealthy. A curious spectacle, certainly. More significant, however, is the signal this sends: ICE acknowledges prediction market data as a legitimate asset class. It is a declaration, in effect, that the collective intelligence of these markets holds predictive power worthy of institutional capital.

The investment values Polymarket at approximately $9 billion and grants ICE exclusive rights to distribute event-driven data to institutional investors. Subsequently, ICE launched “Polymarket Signals and Sentiment,” a tool converting crowd-sourced probabilities into structured analytics. Consider the implications. When regulatory decisions loom in Washington, traders on the NYSE need no longer await official announcements; they can observe the shifting odds on Polymarket in real time. ICE is constructing, in essence, a new layer of sentiment analysis for the entire financial system.

David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, has described prediction markets as “super interesting” and confirmed internal evaluation. ICE, therefore, is the logical conduit for delivering this data. It is a reasonable, if not certain, expectation that they will be the beneficiary of this emerging demand. The investment appears, at this juncture, to be a comparatively safe proposition.

DraftKings

DraftKings (DKNG +2.14%) has suffered a decline in stock value, falling over 45% in the past year. The market, it seems, has yet to fully comprehend the company’s expansion into prediction markets. DraftKings Predictions is currently accessible in 38 states, exceeding the reach of its core sportsbook, which operates in only 26. This allows DraftKings to penetrate markets – notably California and Texas – where traditional sports betting remains prohibited.

The company estimates that Predictions could generate $10 billion in annual gross revenue, with a near-term target of “hundreds of millions.” DraftKings is establishing two distinct revenue streams: transaction fees from the platform itself and trading economics derived from an in-house market-making division planned for 2026.

The acquisition of Railbird, a designated contract market, is particularly noteworthy. This integration will bolster DraftKings’ technological infrastructure and expand its market share. On Super Bowl Sunday, DraftKings Predictions experienced a threefold increase in daily trading volume and ranked second in downloads within its category. At current levels, the stock presents a compelling risk-reward profile for patient investors.

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FiscalNote

FiscalNote is a stock largely ignored by the market, with a market capitalization currently hovering around $17 million. In February 2026, the company announced a significant expansion into political prediction markets, previewed at PoliticalPredictions.com. The reason for this relative obscurity is not difficult to discern. However, the stock possesses characteristics that warrant closer examination.

For over a decade, FiscalNote has developed tools for tracking legislation, monitoring regulations, and analyzing policy. The company already models political and regulatory outcomes, making prediction markets a logical extension of its core competencies. The transition appears, therefore, not as a speculative venture, but as a natural evolution.

CEO Josh Resnik describes the move as “an evolution of what we’ve been doing for years,” positioning FiscalNote to integrate proprietary data and AI capabilities into a category attracting increasing institutional interest. The company is exploring models whereby advocacy organizations could sponsor prediction markets tied to specific policy issues, creating new revenue streams.

With a price-to-sales ratio of just 0.13, this is undeniably a speculative investment. It carries inherent risks. However, it also offers the potential for asymmetric returns should the prediction market category gain traction. It is a gamble, certainly, but one that may prove worthwhile for those willing to accept the attendant uncertainty.

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2026-02-27 10:52