Joby Aviation: Mostly Harmless (For Now)

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Joby Aviation (JOBY +3.72%) experienced a modest upward trajectory (5.4% as of 10:50 a.m. ET Thursday), a phenomenon that, in the grand scheme of things, is statistically inevitable given enough time and publicly traded companies. It appears the market reacted favorably to their recent Q4 earnings report, which, while not quite achieving warp speed, did manage to avoid immediate implosion.

The analysts, those dedicated soothsayers of the financial realm, were anticipating a loss of $0.23 per share on sales of a mere $16.2 million. Joby, however, managed to limit the damage to $0.14 per share, and conjured up sales of $30.8 million. Not bad, considering they’re essentially trying to invent a new mode of transport based on the optimistic premise that people would prefer to travel above traffic rather than simply accepting it as a fundamental aspect of existence. (It’s a bit like trying to solve the problem of Tuesdays. Everyone agrees they happen, but nobody’s quite sure why.)

Joby Aviation Q4 Earnings: A Numbers Game

How did they pull off this near-miracle of fiscal responsibility? Well, a bit of stock dilution helped. Joby’s share count swelled by 22% over the last 12 months, which is a perfectly reasonable way to spread the pain around. (It’s the same principle as dividing a single biscuit between a very large number of people. Everyone gets a crumb, and nobody stages a revolution.) But, to their credit, they also made some genuine improvements. Revenue, for example, jumped from a humble $55,000 a year ago to a positively galactic $30.8 million. That’s a 55,900% increase. (Which, when you think about it, is almost enough to buy a small planet. Almost.) Operating costs did increase, of course, but only by 58.5%. This resulted in a quarterly loss of $121.5 million, which is less than half what they lost last year. Progress, of a sort.

For the full year, Joby reported sales of $53.4 million, net losses of $929.8 million, and a per-share loss of $1.13. (It’s a good thing they’re not selling actual spaceships. The insurance premiums would be astronomical.) They ended the year with $1.4 billion in cash and equivalents, and burned through $563.8 million in cash during the year (up 18% year over year). (One can only imagine the size of the bonfire.)

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Is Joby Stock a Buy? (A Question for the Ages)

This means Joby has enough cash to remain solvent for at least two more years, assuming the universe doesn’t spontaneously decide to rearrange itself. And, with plans to begin passenger flights in Dubai this year, the cash burn situation might improve. (It’s a bit like hoping a leaky bucket will eventually fill up. Statistically improbable, but not entirely impossible.)

However, analysts don’t anticipate Joby turning a profit before 2032. Founder and CEO JoeBen Bevirt optimistically predicts 2026 will be a “key inflection point.” (Which is a polite way of saying, “We really, really hope something good happens.”) It’s a race against time for this air travel pioneer, and a rather expensive one at that. From a value perspective, the risks remain substantial. The potential reward, however, is the tantalizing possibility of a future where commuting involves soaring above the mundane, a future that, if it ever arrives, will likely be powered by a lot of very expensive batteries and a healthy dose of optimism. And possibly, just possibly, a small miracle.

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2026-02-26 19:23