TTD: Numbers Up, Spirits Down?

So, The Trade Desk [TTD 6.04%] had a bit of a Thursday, didn’t they? Stock took a tumble, despite, and I quote the press release, “exceeding expectations.” Which, in corporate-speak, usually means they met them, but are really hoping you’re distracted by the shiny numbers.

The analysts, bless their hearts, were predicting 34 cents a share, $841.2 million in sales. TTD delivered…59 cents and $847 million. Champagne wishes, caviar dreams, right? Except, hold on. That 59 cents? That’s like using a filter on your Instagram photo. Pretty, but not entirely…real.

The Fine Print (Because There’s Always Fine Print)

See, when you adjust for, shall we say, actual accounting principles (GAAP, for those of us who don’t have a team of people dedicated to making numbers look better), that 59 cents shrinks to a measly 39. Thirty-nine cents. That’s less than the cost of a decent latte in some cities. And only 8% better than last year. It’s like getting a participation trophy. You’re acknowledged, but not exactly celebrated.

Sales were up 14% year-over-year, which sounds good until you realize profit margins are shrinking faster than my willpower around a donut. Net profit margin dropped a full three percentage points to 22%. They’re making more money, but keeping less of it. It’s the corporate equivalent of running on a treadmill.

For the whole year, they did $2.9 billion in sales – up 18%. But even that growth slowed down in the last quarter. They’re like that friend who peaked in high school. Still functional, but the glory days are behind them.

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Should You Hit “Sell”? Asking For A Friend…

Looking ahead, The Trade Desk is predicting a sequential revenue decline in Q1 2026. A decline! It’s like they’re actively trying to disappoint people. They’re hoping year-over-year growth will save them, but it’s only going to be 10%. Ten percent. That’s the percentage of people who actually enjoy kale.

And the earnings guidance? Don’t even ask. They’re not giving GAAP numbers, just “adjusted EBITDA,” which is basically a magic trick. It’ll be “approximately $195 million” – down more than half from last quarter. It’s like they’re admitting defeat, but in a very polite, corporate way.

So, you’ve got a stock trading at 27.5 times earnings, slowing sales growth, and potentially shrinking profits. Let’s just say I’ve seen more promising dating profiles. It’s a sell. Unless you’re really into participation trophies and politely disappointing numbers.

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2026-02-26 18:12