Bitcoin’s market is currently playing the world’s most dramatic game of musical chairs, with no clear winner. The only thing more predictable than the price fluctuations? The existential dread of long-term holders who’ve clearly never heard of the phrase “buy and hold.”
Enter the long-term holders (LTHs), a group so dedicated to their crypto stash they’ve basically turned their wallets into time capsules. Spoiler: they’re not thrilled about the current trend.
These folks are the crypto equivalent of a hoarder who’s suddenly decided to sell their grandma’s antique teapot on eBay. Their behavior? A mix of “I’m definitely not panicking” and “why is the price still below my purchase date?”
Long-term holders’ historical threshold in focus
Historically, Bitcoin has acted like a teenager at a family reunion-dramatic, unpredictable, and occasionally prone to throwing a tantrum. When the price dips below the LTHs’ cost basis, it’s like watching a toddler’s meltdown over a broken toy. But here’s the twist: this time, the toy might be a $38,900 Bitcoin.
Cost basis? It’s the crypto version of “I paid what?!” and it’s trending upward faster than a crypto influencer’s Instagram story. Right now, Bitcoin’s trading at a cozy $64,890, which is roughly 66.8% above the LTHs’ average price. Think of it as the crypto equivalent of a 10% discount on a $100 bill-still a steal, but not exactly a “buy now” moment.
If history repeats, Bitcoin could retest that $38,900 zone. But let’s be real-history’s a terrible roommate. It’s like expecting your ex to show up with a surprise birthday cake. Maybe, maybe not.
But here’s the kicker: Bitcoin’s current price is so far above the LTHs’ cost basis, it’s like trying to fit a couch into a phone booth. Significant bearish catalysts? They’d need to be as convincing as a cryptocurrency ad on a 1990s infomercial.
What are the catalysts?
Long-term holders aren’t exactly sprinting to the exit. They’re more like someone who’s “just checking their phone” while the house is on fire. The Binary CDD? It’s like the crypto version of a party where everyone’s secretly plotting to leave early.
This indicator’s been printing a “1” more often than a toddler’s bedtime story. But don’t worry-it’s just the LTHs’ way of saying, “I’m not selling, I’m just… reorganizing my portfolio.”
Market data shows this is the first time since February that the Binary CDD has hit “1.” Before that? Also February. It’s like a broken record, but with more crypto jargon.
The recurrence suggests that a period of measured profit-taking may be underway. Or, as I like to call it, “the crypto version of a slow burn.”
So far, the price impact remains limited. Bitcoin rebounded from a weekly low of $62,510, which is basically the crypto equivalent of “I’m fine, really.”
Long-term holders remain relatively measured
Despite the recent sell-off, LTHs are still more “I’m fine, really” than “I’m panicking.” Meanwhile, short-term holders (STHs) are acting like a group of hyperactive squirrels with a 401(k).
Short-term holders have been the main sellers, with their distribution peaking during the later hours of January 23rd. It’s like watching a pack of wolves chase a rabbit-except the rabbit is Bitcoin and the wolves are FOMO-driven traders.
The LTH/STH SOPR ratio? It’s like a popularity contest, but for Bitcoin wallets. And right now, the short-termers are the ones with the most followers.
When the ratio’s above 1, it’s the LTHs leading the charge. Below 1? That’s the STHs winning the “I’m selling everything” trophy. Currently, the STHs are on a winning streak, which means the LTHs are probably sipping tea and judging everyone.
For now, there’s no certainty Bitcoin will revisit the LTHs’ cost basis. Unless the macroeconomic climate turns into a full-blown soap opera, complete with drama, betrayal, and a 50% chance of a bear market.
Absent those catalysts, the market may continue to consolidate above this historically significant threshold. Which is just a fancy way of saying, “We’re all just waiting for the next plot twist.”
Final Summary
- Bitcoin’s long-term holders are currently more “I’m not selling” than “I’m selling.”
- Profit-taking over the past day has been dominated by short-term holders, who are clearly the MVPs of this storyline.
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2026-02-26 05:59