Amplitude: Discounted Tech or Just Another Algorithm?

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So, the tech sector is having a bit of a moment. A “down 41% moment,” to be precise. It’s like everyone suddenly realized software isn’t magic beans, and now they’re all frantically checking the expiration dates. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF is looking a little peaked, and even the big guys – Microsoft, Salesforce, ServiceNow – are sporting some dark circles under their eyes. But amidst the panic, there’s Amplitude. And let’s just say, their numbers are…intriguing.

Momentum, or Just a Good Spreadsheet?

They clocked in with 17% revenue growth last quarter, hitting $91.4 million. Not bad, right? It’s like being mildly surprised you found matching socks. Adjusted earnings per share? A little less exciting. Up from $0.02 to $0.04. Which, let’s be honest, still requires a magnifying glass. But they did manage $23.5 million in free cash flow. Which is enough to buy a really nice corporate retreat…or, you know, reinvest in the actual business.

Apparently, the CFO, Andrew Casey, came in and basically gave the pricing strategy a makeover. Simplified it. Extended those contracts. It’s like Marie Kondo for SaaS. “Does this subscription bring joy? If not, make them sign a longer agreement!” And it’s working. Remaining performance obligations are up 35% to $417.7 million. Which means customers are at least saying they’re happy. We’ll see if that translates to actual renewals.

Their guidance is…conservative. They’re predicting 16% growth for the next quarter and 15% for the year. It’s like they’re bracing for a zombie apocalypse. They’re also aiming for $0.08-$0.13 in adjusted earnings per share by 2026. Casey wants to grow expenses slower than revenue. Which, in corporate speak, means “we’re trying not to completely bankrupt ourselves.”

AI: The New Shiny Object?

Amplitude is trying to be the one-stop-shop for digital analytics. Like Amazon, but for data. They’ve been acquiring companies and adding new features, and now they’ve launched their “Agentic AI Analytics platform.” It’s basically a chatbot for your data. They’re leveraging AI from Anthropic and OpenAI. It’s like giving your spreadsheet a personality.

Their “Global Agent” can answer complex questions in plain language. Which is great, because let’s be honest, most data dashboards look like they were designed by a committee of robots. It can build dashboards, investigate root causes, and explain what’s happening across funnels. It’s like having a data detective. Apparently, agentic queries are up to 25% of the total. Which means people are actually using it. Or they’re just curious what the robot will say.

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So, is it a Buy, or Just Another Tech Bubble?

Look, the stock is down 41% year-to-date. It’s basically on sale. They announced a $100 million share buyback, which is like saying, “Hey, we believe in ourselves, sort of.” And they have $192 million in cash. Which is enough to keep the lights on for a while.

The business seems to be where management wants it to be. The AI platform is promising, but let’s be real, everyone is slapping “AI” on everything these days. It’s the new “cloud.” The big question is whether investors will ever regain faith in the software sector. Right now, they seem to want proof that these companies can survive the AI revolution. Which, honestly, is a fair request.

Opening a small position in Amplitude looks…okay. It’s likely to be volatile. But they’re chasing a large opportunity, and the AI platform could be disruptive. It’s a gamble. But sometimes, the best investments are the ones that make you slightly uncomfortable. Just don’t bet the farm. Unless you have a really good spreadsheet to track your losses.

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2026-02-26 04:32