Quantum Shadows & Market Illusions

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The pursuit of quantum computation proceeds, not as a rush toward utility, but as a meticulous charting of an ever-receding horizon. Years stretch, not toward practical application, but toward further refinement of the theoretical impossibilities. Progress is undeniable, certainly, but its destination remains obscured by a fog of escalating complexity. One observes, with a peculiar detachment, the relentless advance of a technology seemingly destined to perpetually remain just beyond reach.

The potential, as it is invariably described, is vast. A reshaping of daily life, they promise. Processing speeds exceeding anything currently conceivable. Yet, one is compelled to wonder if this potential is not merely a phantom, a bureaucratic necessity to justify the continued allocation of resources. The very notion of “orders of magnitude greater” feels less like a statement of fact and more like a desperate attempt to ward off the inevitable questions regarding return on investment.

Certain entities, naturally, position themselves as frontrunners in this peculiar race. They take “steps,” as if navigating a predetermined course, while the underlying rules of the game remain stubbornly opaque. The recent market fluctuations, attributed to anxieties surrounding artificial intelligence, offer a curious opportunity. Shares are “beaten down,” a term that implies a degree of agency on the part of the market itself. It is within these declines, however, that one might discern a temporary misalignment between price and the underlying, albeit illusory, promise of quantum dominance.

The Illusion of Legacy

International Business Machines (IBM +2.71%) is often categorized as a relic of a bygone era. A “legacy tech company,” they call it. This classification, however, is a convenient simplification. The company has, over the past decade, engaged in a protracted process of self-redefinition. A shedding of old skins, if you will. A pivoting, as the strategists are fond of saying, towards the nebulous realms of cloud computing and artificial intelligence. It is a transformation not driven by inherent necessity, but by a bureaucratic imperative to demonstrate continued relevance.

IBM has also, somewhat unexpectedly, emerged as a claimant in the quantum arena. A decade ago, they initiated a “quantum computing division.” A department created, ostensibly, to explore the unexplored. They have achieved certain “wins,” primarily in the realm of reliability. Improving the reliability of a system built on inherent instability is, one suspects, a Sisyphean task. They have adhered to a “roadmap,” a document that promises milestones that may or may not be attainable. The aim, they declare, is to construct a “fault-tolerant quantum computer” by the end of the decade. A bold claim, considering the inherent fallibility of all things.

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The company’s stock has experienced a recent “decline,” attributed to anxieties surrounding a tool called Anthropic’s Claude Code. This tool, it is feared, may disrupt IBM’s COBOL modernization efforts. A significant portion of IBM’s business, apparently, rests on maintaining antiquated systems. The fear, while understandable, seems disproportionate. The shares, down more than 20% this year, trade at less than 19 times earnings. A “bargain,” perhaps, but one should always be wary of bargains that appear too good to be true.

The Coming Quantum Security Paradox

Quantum computing, despite its inherent impracticality, presents a peculiar security challenge. The potential for disruption to modern encryption methods is real, though the exact timeline remains uncertain. As quantum processing capabilities increase, existing cryptographic protocols may become vulnerable. A predictable consequence, yet one that seems to have taken many by surprise.

Zscaler (ZS +4.24%) has been preparing for this “quantum shift” for some time. They offer “post-quantum cryptography” methods. A preemptive measure, designed to address a threat that may or may not materialize. The estimated market opportunity for PCQ is “more than $300 billion within a decade.” A figure that seems, at best, speculative. It is a growth driver, they claim, as quantum computing technology evolves. A self-fulfilling prophecy, perhaps.

Like many cybersecurity stocks, Zscaler has experienced a “decline,” attributed to the aforementioned anxieties surrounding artificial intelligence. The shares are down more than 55% from their 52-week high. Artificial intelligence, ironically, will likely increase the need for robust cybersecurity platforms. Zscaler, therefore, may represent a “bargain” for patient investors. Though patience, in a world governed by irrational exuberance and inexplicable crashes, is a virtue rarely rewarded.

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2026-02-25 16:14