Cryptocurrency: A Long-Term Perspective

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The history of speculative assets is, predictably, a history of speculation. One might even posit that the very concept of value is, at its core, an elaborate exercise in collective delusion. (Though, of course, if everyone agrees on the delusion, does it cease to be a delusion? Philosophers have been arguing about that for centuries, which is probably why they don’t have much money.) But occasionally, something emerges from the froth that demonstrates a staying power exceeding mere transient enthusiasm. Cryptocurrencies, as a class, present a fascinating case study. Millions have bloomed, most to wither almost immediately, but a few… well, a few continue to exist. And, remarkably, some even appear to be increasing in value. The question, as always, is whether this is a rational response to underlying fundamentals or simply a particularly well-organized frenzy. We will, naturally, not be able to answer that, but we can examine the evidence.

This isn’t to say that long-term investment in digital assets is sensible. Sensibility, after all, is a rather overrated quality. But it is, demonstrably, happening. And understanding the currents driving this particular phenomenon is, from a historical perspective, rather more illuminating than dismissing it as mere madness. (Although, let’s be honest, a healthy dose of skepticism is always advisable.)

1. Bitcoin

Bitcoin. The original. The granddaddy of them all. It arrived, as far as anyone can tell, from somewhere vaguely resembling the digital ether in 2009, promising a decentralized, peer-to-peer electronic cash system. (The precise mechanics of this system remain, to many, a bit like explaining quantum physics to a goldfish.) It’s still around, which, given the mortality rate of digital currencies, is something of an achievement. It is, predictably, the first cryptocurrency most investors consider. And, as of late, it has been performing rather well. Back in 2016, you could have acquired a Bitcoin for less than the price of a reasonably decent sandwich. Now? Well, let’s just say you’d need a very large sandwich. And possibly a small mortgage.

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Can it repeat this performance over the next decade? There are no guarantees, naturally. The universe is, after all, fundamentally chaotic. (And occasionally smells faintly of almonds.) But recent pronouncements from various governmental bodies – including the U.S. Treasury designating Bitcoin a “strategic” asset – suggest a degree of acceptance that was previously lacking. Some analysts even predict a price of $1 million by 2030. (Which, if true, would solve a lot of sandwich-related problems.)

2. Ethereum

Ethereum, launched in 2015, is, in many ways, Bitcoin’s more ambitious younger sibling. While Bitcoin aimed to be digital gold, Ethereum aspired to be a digital operating system. It allows developers to build decentralized applications (dApps) and smart contracts, essentially automating agreements without the need for intermediaries. (Think of it as a digital notary, but with more code and fewer rubber stamps.) It’s the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, and has consistently kept pace with Bitcoin. Since its inception, it has risen an astonishing 67,500%. (Which, incidentally, is approximately the number of times someone has explained blockchain to a bewildered relative.)

Ethereum’s ecosystem is remarkably diverse, encompassing everything from blockchain gaming to decentralized finance (DeFi). Investing in Ethereum, therefore, is not merely investing in a currency; it’s investing in the infrastructure of a potential future economy. (A future economy that may or may not involve sentient robots and intergalactic trade, but one can always hope.) Many of the most innovative blockchain technologies – NFTs, meme coins, stablecoins – first emerged on the Ethereum blockchain. It has even begun to explore the possibilities of artificial intelligence. (Which, if combined with blockchain, could lead to… well, let’s not think about that just yet.)

Any Other Cryptocurrency Options?

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have established track records spanning over a decade. Both have demonstrated the potential for substantial returns. But what about the thousands of other cryptocurrencies vying for attention? Unfortunately, most lack the longevity and demonstrable performance we’re looking for. Many emerged during the speculative frenzy of 2020-2021 and haven’t survived. Older contenders like Dogecoin, XRP, and Litecoin have either faltered or failed to deliver consistent growth. (They’re not bad cryptocurrencies, per se, just… less likely to fund your retirement.)

However, don’t despair. Bitcoin and Ethereum together account for approximately 70% of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. By focusing on these two assets, you’re likely to capture the majority of the long-term upside. (Though, of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results. The universe, as previously mentioned, is fundamentally chaotic.)

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2026-02-25 13:32