XRP: A Penny Dreadful?

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One does tire of these digital fripperies, don’t you think? Cryptocurrencies, each promising the moon and delivering…well, a rather damp squib. XRP, or Ripple as the marketing chaps prefer, attempts to position itself as a sensible shoe amongst the glitter boots. The idea – banks shifting funds without the usual bureaucratic rigmarole – isn’t entirely daft. It’s merely… optimistic.

It briefly touched $3.65 last year, a fleeting moment of enthusiasm. Now, down a rather depressing 61%, one begins to suspect the initial excitement was largely fuelled by wishful thinking and a surplus of venture capital. A common ailment, naturally.

The problem, you see, isn’t whether Ripple Payments solves a genuine issue – it does. The question is whether XRP itself is necessary to the solution. And frankly, my dear, I’m not convinced. It’s a bit like insisting on a particularly flamboyant waistcoat when a perfectly serviceable jacket will do.

The Plumbing of Finance

International payments, as anyone who’s attempted one will attest, are a ghastly business. Days lost in transit, fees that would make a loan shark blush… it’s all frightfully inefficient. The SWIFT network, while ubiquitous, is a bit like a particularly ancient and creaky plumbing system. Ripple proposes a bypass, a direct line if you will. Charming in theory.

XRP was intended as the lubricant, the bridging currency. Instead of dollars lumbering across continents, a swift exchange of XRP, minimal fees, instant gratification. Sounds divine, doesn’t it? Except, and it’s a rather crucial ‘except’, Ripple doesn’t require XRP. They can jolly well use good old-fashioned fiat currency if they prefer. Which, increasingly, they seem inclined to do.

Banks, you see, aren’t terribly keen on holding onto volatile assets. It’s bad for the balance sheet, frightfully unsettling for the accountants. They want something solid, dependable, like…well, actual money. Holding XRP is rather like playing a high-stakes game of roulette with the company funds. Not terribly prudent.

And now, they’ve launched their own stablecoin, Ripple USD. A sensible move, really. Zero volatility, predictable, reliable. It rather undermines the whole point of XRP, doesn’t it? It’s like commissioning a rather elaborate hat after you’ve already decided to wear a helmet.

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A Five-Year Forecast (If One Must)

Currently trading at $1.42, XRP is, shall we say, experiencing a bit of a downturn. Reminds one of the market in 1918. It peaked in 2018, naturally, then proceeded to lose 90% of its value. A rather dramatic collapse, wouldn’t you agree? It spent the next five years languishing below a dollar. A cautionary tale, perhaps.

I suspect history will repeat itself. Ripple Payments isn’t exactly clamoring for XRP. Unless it discovers a genuinely unique use case – and frankly, I’m not holding my breath – it’s destined to be tossed about by the whims of speculative investors. A rather undignified existence.

So, where will it be in five years? I’d venture somewhere between $0.30 and $0.50. A rather depressing thought, I grant you. But a realistic one. It assumes the current peak is as good as it gets, and the decline mirrors the previous one. One can always hope for a miracle, of course. But one shouldn’t rely on it.

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2026-02-25 12:23