Mining Stocks: A Mostly Harmless Investment

The core idea here is simple: these stocks may have more to gain than to lose. A concept, it should be noted, that applies to most things, provided you’re sufficiently vague. Freeport-McMoRan, specifically, looks interesting for three reasons. First, the company helpfully provides projections of its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) based on various copper prices. It’s like a weather forecast for money, only slightly more reliable. Their latest update suggests $11 billion EBITDA at $4/pound of copper, escalating to $19 billion at $6/pound. Given the current price of $5.66, a rough calculation (involving numbers, which are, frankly, a bit of a nuisance) suggests around $17.6 billion. Assuming an enterprise value (EV) of $96.9 billion, that puts Freeport trading on an EV/EBITDA multiple of a mere 5.5 times in 2027 – a historically favorable valuation. It’s as if someone accidentally left a rather large discount sticker on it.







