The Street doesn’t hand out second chances. A stock has a memory like a goldfish, and Tilray Brands (TLRY 1.65%) is starting to look like a very old fish. Numbers don’t lie, and these ones are telling a story about a slow leak.
Down sixteen percent in a year. Seventy-four percent over three. Ninety-seven percent over five. Those aren’t declines; they’re disappearances. The question isn’t whether Tilray struggled, but whether it’s time to cut your losses before there’s nothing left to salvage.
Here’s the layout, stripped bare.
A Rush for the Door, With Bumps Along the Way
Tilray jumped in the cannabis game early, when legalization was still a promise and not a headache. They went public, then started signing deals and acquiring companies like a man trying to hold water in both hands. The idea was simple: grow fast.
They’re now one of the big players, moving over $837 million in flower, beverages, and the rest of it. So, in a way, they succeeded. But success, like a cheap suit, doesn’t always wear well. Two problems surfaced, and they’re not small.
First, they haven’t exactly been masters of execution. Despite the growth, they’ve been burning cash for years. Second, the cannabis gold rush turned out to be more of a drizzle. The black market is still there, undercutting prices, and governments are piling on taxes and fees like they’re going out of style. It’s a tough neighborhood.
They’ve been printing shares like a corner store prints lottery tickets. A four hundred ninety-five percent increase in share count since 2018. That explains a lot. Dilution is a slow poison, and Tilray has been taking a steady dose.
Should You Abandon Ship?
When a stock falls this far, it needs a miracle to climb back up. Tilray doesn’t look like it has one. Second quarter revenue grew a measly three percent. Wall Street isn’t expecting much better, just low-to-mid single digits for the foreseeable future. It’s a slow burn, and the embers are fading.
Holding onto Tilray feels like throwing good money after bad. The management team has kept the company afloat, but sometimes that’s at the expense of the people who invested in it. It’s a common story. My advice? Dump the stock. Find something with a pulse. There are plenty of other fish in the sea, even if most of them are just as slippery.
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2026-02-23 16:39