Novo Nordisk: A Slow Harvest

The year the needle first found purchase, late 2017, Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic was a quiet thing, a remedy whispered between doctors and those carrying a weight beyond measure. It wasn’t until 2021, with the tailoring of Wegovy, a name that hinted at a leaving behind, that the market stirred. The stock, like a late-blooming crop, began to swell, gaining sixty percent that year. A good yield, but one that tasted of potential, not fulfillment.

By 2022, the engine of Ozempic was humming, lifting the company’s sales by eighteen percent. It wasn’t a flood, not yet, but a steady rise, though profits lagged, held back by the necessary investment in building the capacity to meet the growing demand. Then came 2023, a year of abundance. Sales soared thirty-five percent, profits exploded, a genuine bounty. But the land is never held unchallenged. Eli Lilly arrived, bringing Zepbound and Mounjaro, and the balance shifted.

Since then, the path has been downhill, a slow descent. The stock crested above $142, a high point marked by the beginning of the challenge, then began to slide, mirroring the turning of the seasons. Last week, it closed at around $47 a share, a loss of sixty-seven percent from that peak. A harsh reckoning, to be sure.

But consider this: it now costs little more than it did when the Ozempic story first began, five years past. It’s as if the land has been fallow, preparing for another harvest. Investors are offered a second chance, a chance to plant seeds in fertile ground, to hold these shares, perhaps, forever.

I, for one, am giving it serious thought.

Ozempic: Now in Pill Form

There’s a rhythm to these things, a repeating pattern. Five years ago, Novo Nordisk struck a vein, monopolizing the market until Eli Lilly appeared. Now, the company once again finds itself largely alone, transitioning from injections to a new form: pills. The Food and Drug Administration approved oral Wegovy in December, and oral Ozempic last month. A quiet revolution, happening in the small, unassuming form of a tablet.

How long until Eli Lilly catches up, offering its own pills? Not long, likely. They are a savvy company, having already witnessed the power of Mounjaro and Zepbound, even delivered by needle. They see Novo Nordisk enjoying this moment, this brief respite with the tablet form. They won’t wait. An FDA decision on a Mounjaro pill is expected this quarter.

And that is as it should be. Forewarned is forearmed, and Novo Nordisk has seen this play out before. They know the challenge is coming. Having lost the first round with injectables, they will fight harder to retain their share of the market with oral medications. A good fight, a necessary fight.

What This Means for Investors

Here’s the heart of the matter, for those who seek a return on their investment. After circling back on valuation, Novo Nordisk stock is trading at a below-market ratio of price to free cash flow – less than 23. With free cash flow projected to grow at 17.5 percent annually over the next five years, and a strong 3.8 percent dividend yield on top of that, now is the time to buy these shares – and hold them, perhaps, for generations.

2026-02-23 15:22

Ozempic: Now in Pill Form

What This Means for Investors

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