Sixty percent. That’s the hit D-Wave Quantum (QBTS 6.79%) has taken from its October 2025 high. A CARNAGE, really. The vultures are circling, the day traders are twitching, and the question hanging in the stale air is this: dip-buy opportunity or a screaming, flashing WARNING SIGN? Let’s just say, I’ve seen enough market illusions to know that sometimes, the most dazzling lights conceal the deepest abyss. And believe me, this one feels…complicated.
Unlike most of these quantum cowboys, D-Wave isn’t just burning venture capital on theoretical physics. They’re actually selling something. Actual revenue. Paying customers. Deployments. A balance sheet that hasn’t completely dissolved into the ether. Which, in this business, is practically a miracle. But don’t mistake pragmatism for prudence. This valuation…it’s a hallucination. A beautiful, terrifying, potentially catastrophic hallucination. And the dilution? Oh, the dilution… it’s a slow bleed, a constant drip of shareholder equity into the quantum void.
The Momentum, Such as It Is
D-Wave deals in quantum annealing. Not your general-purpose, world-dominating quantum computer—more like a specialized tool for solving optimization problems. Think logistics, manufacturing efficiency, routing vehicles. The kind of stuff that keeps the gears of capitalism grinding, albeit a little faster. Classical computers can handle this stuff, sure, but they choke on complexity. D-Wave’s machines, in theory, can chew through it like a caffeinated badger. They’re usually deployed in hybrid systems, classical computers doing the grunt work, the quantum processor tackling the really nasty bits. It’s a symbiotic relationship… or a temporary truce before the machines take over, who knows?
First nine months of 2025: $21.8 million in revenue. Up 235% year over year. Doubled in the third quarter. Gross margins above 70%. Numbers that, on paper, should be sending champagne corks flying. But this isn’t a rational market, folks. It’s a pressure cooker fueled by hype and fear. And the third quarter numbers, while impressive, are a mere blip on the radar of a company that still feels like it’s running on borrowed time.
They’re landing bigger contracts. Jülich Supercomputing Center in Germany. A $10 million euro deal with the Italian government. $20 million from Florida Atlantic University. Another $10 million contract with some Fortune 100 behemoth. The momentum is there, alright. But it feels…fragile. Like a house of cards built on a fault line.
They exited Q3 with $836.2 million in cash. Enough to keep the lights on and the scientists tinkering for a while. But with operating expenses at $23.5 million per quarter, that cushion isn’t as thick as it looks. It’s enough to delay the inevitable, not to prevent it.
The Risks: A Quantum Leap of Faith
Nearly 299 times sales. Let that sink in. 299 TIMES SALES. That’s not a valuation; it’s a dare. A challenge to the market to prove just how irrational it can be. It’s the kind of number that makes even hardened speculators reach for the antacids. And the losses? Significant. They’re bleeding money faster than a politician can change their stance.
The $550 million acquisition of Quantum Circuits… that’s a gamble. A desperate attempt to expand into the gate-model quantum computing space. A long-term play for general-purpose quantum computers. A potential game-changer. Or a black hole that will swallow D-Wave whole. The acquisition funded with new stock, of course. Dilution, dilution, dilution. It’s a relentless cycle.
Look, let’s be honest. D-Wave isn’t an obvious “buy the dip” pick. It requires a level of faith that borders on delusion. A willingness to ignore the red flags and embrace the possibility of a quantum miracle. A perfect storm of execution is needed. Any misstep, any earnings miss, and this whole thing could come crashing down faster than you can say “superposition.”
Long-term investors with a high tolerance for risk… maybe. A small position, perhaps. But I’d suggest waiting for the Q4 earnings report on February 26th. See if they can maintain the revenue growth and keep expenses under control. If they can, maybe, just maybe, this quantum leap won’t end in a spectacular crash. But my gut tells me… buckle up. This is going to be a WILD ride.
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2026-02-23 12:22