SpaceX IPO: A Rocket to Nowhere?

by

The air, my friends, is thick with the scent of promised fortunes. Elon, that tireless purveyor of dreams, prepares to unleash SpaceX upon the stock market in July 2026. A mere six months hence, if one is to believe the pronouncements. And what a curious beast it is he offers us. A company, yes, but also a carefully constructed chimera, assembled from the flotsam and jetsam of his other ventures.

First, a modest insider sale, valuing the enterprise at a respectable $800 billion. Then, the ingenious grafting of X (formerly Twitter, a name whispered with a mixture of nostalgia and regret) onto xAI, that laboratory of artificial whimsy. And finally, the pièce de résistance: the amalgamation of this hybrid creature with SpaceX itself. A maneuver, I assure you, that would make even the most seasoned magician raise an eyebrow.

So, when the IPO arrives, bearing a valuation of $1.5 trillion, you won’t merely be investing in rockets. You’ll be acquiring a stake in a social network famed for its… spirited debates, an AI endeavor burning through capital at a prodigious rate, and, oh yes, a company that actually manages to launch things into orbit. A veritable bundle of hopes, anxieties, and questionable accounting practices.

The Arithmetic of Ambition

One is compelled to ask: how does one justify such a leap in valuation? From $800 billion to $1.5 trillion in a matter of months? The answer, my friends, is as elegant as it is audacious. Perhaps SpaceX, standing alone, isn’t worth $1.5 trillion. But SpaceX plus X plus xAI… that, just might be. It’s a bit like claiming a broken clock is worth more when adorned with a flickering bulb and a handful of spare gears.

Let us delve into the calculations, shall we? In March 2025, our protagonist engaged the services of Sullivan and Cromwell, those arbiters of financial reality, to assign values to X and xAI. Their verdict? X, a paltry $33 billion. xAI, a slightly more optimistic $80 billion. A combined total of $113 billion. Modest, but a starting point.

Fast forward a year. xAI, having enjoyed a period of intense activity (and presumably, prodigious spending), now boasts a valuation of $250 billion. SpaceX, meanwhile, has swelled to a cool $1 trillion. Combine the two, and we arrive at $1.25 trillion. A mere hop, skip, and jump to the coveted $1.5 trillion mark. A growth rate, one might observe, that would make a particularly ambitious weed blush.

The Price of Dreams

But let us not be swept away by these figures. They are, after all, conjured from thin air, or at least, from the private ledgers of private companies. Until an official prospectus appears, we are left to speculate, to estimate, to engage in the delightful art of informed guesswork.

Payload Space, those diligent chroniclers of spacefaring commerce, estimate SpaceX generated $15 billion in revenue in 2025, with a projected $23.8 billion for 2026. Reuters whispers of profits as high as $8 billion last year. A respectable sum, to be sure.

xAI, however, presents a different picture. Approximately $250 million in revenue over six months, offset by a loss of $2.5 billion. An annual run rate of $500 million in revenue and $5 billion in losses. A veritable geyser of capital, gushing into the void. A company, one might say, that is exquisitely positioned to redefine the meaning of “venture capital.”

Combine the profitable SpaceX with the spectacularly unprofitable xAI, and we arrive at a company with approximately $16 billion in revenue, $3 billion in profit, and a sales growth rate of 50%. A compelling narrative, if one chooses to believe it.

Valuation: A Delicate Art

What does all this mean for the prospective investor? A $1.5 trillion valuation divided by $16 billion in revenue yields a price-to-sales ratio of just under 94. A $1.5 trillion valuation divided by $3 billion in earnings yields a price-to-earnings ratio of 500. Exorbitant, wouldn’t you agree? A valuation that suggests the market believes SpaceX is not merely a company, but a portal to another dimension.

Unless the IPO prospectus reveals numbers significantly more favorable than these estimates, I, for one, will be observing from the sidelines. Let others chase the rockets. I prefer to keep my feet firmly planted on the ground, counting my modest gains, and contemplating the enduring mysteries of human folly. After all, a fool and his money are soon parted, but a shrewd investor knows when to simply walk away.

Read More

2026-02-22 13:12