Ephemeral Gains: A Tariff’s Ghost

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The tariffs are… diminished. Not dead, mind you. One does not simply kill a tariff. They merely… fade. Like a poorly remembered dream, or the reputation of a provincial bureaucrat. The Supreme Court, in a gesture of legal surgery, has excised a portion of the Trumpian levies, and the market, predictably, has twitched with a momentary exuberance. A brief, almost indecent, display of optimism.

The indexes, initially burdened by whispers of persistent inflation – a phantom that haunts every ledger – perked up at the news. It was, of course, a Pavlovian response. The market, a creature of habit, anticipates relief like a condemned man anticipates a reprieve. But let us not mistake this twitch for a resurrection. The body is still ailing.

The Illusion of Prosperity

The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average performed their little dance of joy. One imagines UPS‘s Carol Tomé, a woman who understands the tangible realities of commerce, offering a wry smile. “Tariffs,” she observed, with the bluntness of a seasoned captain navigating a storm, “are not good for trade.” A statement so obvious, so utterly devoid of nuance, that it feels almost… subversive. The interconnectedness of global commerce, that vast, intricate web, is easily disrupted by such blunt instruments. Companies, caught in the crosscurrents, either absorb the costs – a slow bleed of profit – or pass them on to the consumer, inviting a different kind of discontent.

There is talk, naturally, of refunds. A potential stimulus of $175 billion. A veritable rain of coin! One pictures the accountants, already sharpening their pencils, preparing to navigate the bureaucratic labyrinth. It is a comforting thought, this prospect of restitution. Though, one suspects, the money will be absorbed into the vast, indifferent maw of the economy long before it reaches the pockets of ordinary citizens.

And, of course, there is the hope of lower interest rates. The Federal Reserve, that enigmatic priesthood, might be persuaded to loosen its grip on the purse strings. A turbocharge for the market, they say. As if a little monetary lubrication can solve all the world’s ills. It is a charmingly naive notion.

The Tariff Hydra

But do not be deceived. This surge will prove… ephemeral. Justice Kavanaugh, a man who understands the enduring power of authority, hinted as much. He suggests the President retains ample means to reimpose these levies, to conjure new tariffs from the legislative ether. The hydra, you see, merely grows new heads when one is lopped off.

Section 232, Section 301… the alphabet soup of trade legislation. Each section a potential weapon in the President’s arsenal. National security, unfair trade practices, trade deficits… the justifications are legion. It is a game of shadows, a perpetual motion machine of protectionism. One tariff is struck down, another is erected in its place. A wearying spectacle for those who believe in the free flow of goods and ideas.

One imagines the White House strategists, already plotting their next move. A tariff whack-a-mole, as they say. A relentless pursuit of economic advantage, regardless of the consequences. The President, a man of… singular conviction, will not be deterred. He will impose tariffs simply because he dislikes a foreign leader, or because he feels… aggrieved. It is a dangerous precedent, this elevation of personal whim above rational economic policy.

A Fleeting Optimism?

Could my prediction prove false? Perhaps. The polls suggest a growing public opposition to these tariffs. A 2-to-1 margin, they say. And the consumers are feeling the pinch. Price increases are becoming commonplace. Even the most ardent patriot cannot ignore an empty wallet.

The President, a keen observer of public sentiment, might be persuaded to reconsider. He likes to see the stock market soar, to bask in the reflected glory of economic prosperity. His Attorney General, Pam Bondi, even attempted to steer a congressional hearing away from the Epstein files and towards the Dow Jones Industrial Average. “Over 50,000!” she exclaimed, as if a rising stock index could absolve all sins. A curious diversion, to say the least.

Perhaps, he will conclude that tariffs are a political liability, a drag on the economy. But I doubt it. He has already denounced the Supreme Court ruling and vowed to impose new levies. The market may regain its momentum, but it will not be due to this fleeting surge of optimism. It will be a temporary reprieve, a sugar high before the inevitable crash. The tariffs, you see, are merely… sleeping.

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2026-02-22 11:52