Treasuries vs. Corporate Debt: A Question of Appetite
A brief accounting, for those inclined towards such vulgar displays of arithmetic:
A brief accounting, for those inclined towards such vulgar displays of arithmetic:

The company’s trajectory, once ascending, now hinges upon the capricious whims of OpenAI, a privately-held entity whose valuation exceeds that of many nations. This dependence, this consignment of future earnings to a single customer, is a perilous undertaking. It is a form of economic serfdom, a relinquishing of agency in the pursuit of short-term gain. The reported withdrawal of a proposed $100 billion investment by Nvidia, a behemoth in its own right, is not a mere financial adjustment. It is a signal, a chilling premonition of uncertainty surrounding OpenAI’s viability. The sheer scale of OpenAI’s commitments – $281 billion to Microsoft’s Azure, $300 billion to Oracle – is breathtaking, a testament to unrestrained ambition and a disregard for the fundamental laws of economic sustainability.

Amazon. The very name evokes a boundless expanse, a digital archipelago where the desires of millions are tallied and fulfilled. It is a company that has, through relentless expansion, reshaped the contours of commerce, and, in doing so, subtly altered the habits of a generation. One observes, with a degree of disquiet, the extent to which our lives are now interwoven with its infrastructure. Its origins, a humble bookselling venture, now seem a distant echo, swallowed by the immensity of its present form.

We’re looking at two attempts to simplify access to the digital wild west. Both are trying to get you in on the action, but they’re approaching it with different levels of… shall we say, sanity. One’s laser-focused on Bitcoin, the other’s spreading its bets like a gambler with a questionable strategy. And believe me, I’ve seen questionable strategies. I once advised a man to invest his life savings in trained hamsters. Don’t ask.

They’re posting profits now, see? SKYROCKETING profits, they say. After years of bleeding cash into the digital abyss. The stock? Down 48% from its peak. Forty-eight percent! That’s not a dip, that’s a goddamn freefall. But is it a screaming bargain? A chance to ride the Mouse on a BULL RUN before the whole thing goes nuclear?

Sandisk. The name feels…temporary. Like a motel room. They make NAND, which is fancy talk for flash memory. Spun off from Western Digital not long ago, they’ve been on fire since. Not a controlled burn, either. More like a grease fire in a data center.

It is a curious thing, this aversion to success. One anticipates jubilation, a cascade of buy orders, but instead receives…this. A recalcitrance, a stubborn refusal to acknowledge a flourishing enterprise. The adjusted earnings per share, a respectable $1.24, were dismissed with a shrug. EBITDA, leaping a full 79% to $123 million, seemed to pass unnoticed. It is as if the very numbers offended the delicate sensibilities of the trading floor.

Now, the expense ratio is a mite of a thing, but it adds up. Vanguard’s VXUS is a shade cheaper, though the difference won’t likely make or break a man. IXUS, on the other hand, offers a slightly richer dividend yield, though a feller shouldn’t chase a penny at the expense of good sense. The ‘Beta’ tells ye how much these funds bounce around compared to the whole U.S. market. VXUS mirrors the market, while IXUS is a bit more…restrained. And the amount of money these funds hold—the AUM—shows which one the crowd favors, though popularity ain’t always a sign of wisdom.

But while those two are doing well, there’s one company that’s quietly crushing it: Lam Research. And it’s not about some revolutionary new app or a TikTok influencer endorsement. It’s about equipment. Yes, the stuff that makes the chips. Think of them as the unsung heroes, the stage crew of the tech world. They supply the wafer fabrication equipment – WFE, if you want to sound important at cocktail parties – to the big names like Nvidia, Qualcomm, and, naturally, Apple. About 59% of their business comes from that, but a sneaky 36% is in memory manufacturing. Which, as we’ve established, is the hot ticket right now.

These companies, representing a combined 1.5% of Berkshire’s total equity holdings as of February 4th – $2.7 billion in Visa shares and $2.2 billion in Mastercard – are not insignificant, despite their relatively modest weighting. The temptation to dismiss them on that basis would be a mistake. They are, in essence, toll collectors on the vast highway of commerce, and that is a position of considerable power.