Costco: A Thousand Bucks and a Sigh

Costco. A warehouse full of bulk goods, and a stock price nearing a thousand dollars. It’s funny, isn’t it? We humans, piling things up. So it goes.

The stock, you see, has been doing well. Better than most. Up about 15% this year, which in the grand scheme of things, is merely a blip. A pleasant blip, admittedly, but a blip nonetheless. The question isn’t whether Costco is running well. They’re good at that. Always have been. Like a well-oiled machine, churning out savings and oversized pretzels. No, the real question is whether all that goodness is already baked into the price. And that, my friends, is where things get tricky.

I don’t think it is, not at this price.

Sales Keep Rolling Along

The numbers, as they always do, tell a story. Costco’s sales are up. 9.3% in the last four weeks. A respectable number. $21.3 billion. Enough to make a small country jealous. For the first 22 weeks of the year, $123.2 billion. It’s a lot of money, when you think about it. Enough to buy a lot of toilet paper.

Comparable sales are up 7.1%. They’re squeezing more out of each store, which is what businesses are supposed to do. Take a little more, just a little more, until there’s nothing left. Adjust for gas prices and foreign exchange, and it’s 6.4%. Details, details. They matter to some people.

And the digital sales? Up 34.4%. They’re catching on. Everything is digital now. Soon, we’ll be buying bulk goods with our minds. A frightening thought. Up from 18.3% last month. Progress, they call it. It just feels… faster.

The first quarter numbers were similar. Steady growth. Reliable. Like a heartbeat. Membership fees are up 14%. People still want their annual pass to the land of discounted everything. It’s a ritual, almost.

In short, the machine keeps humming.

Costco is growing, and its online business is growing faster. That’s good. It means they’re not entirely doomed when Amazon inevitably takes over the world. Which, let’s be honest, is only a matter of time. So it goes.

The Problem is What Everyone Already Expects

A durable business with loyal customers and a steady stream of membership fees deserves a premium. That’s just how things are. But a premium doesn’t mean any price. It’s like a good sandwich. You’ll pay a little extra for quality ingredients, but not if they’re charging you $50.

Costco trades at 53 times earnings. That’s… optimistic. It assumes a lot. Years of steady growth, continued membership increases, and expanding profit margins. And right now, they’re delivering. But what if things slow down? What if Amazon or Walmart’s Sam’s Club decide to fight back?

It’s not that Costco is grossly overvalued. It’s just that there’s no margin for error. No room for a bad quarter. No wiggle room. It’s like walking a tightrope over a pit of sharks. A very profitable tightrope, but a tightrope nonetheless.

I think a price around $830 would be more reasonable. A little breathing room. A little safety net. But $1,000? That feels… ambitious. Like hoping for a miracle. And miracles, my friends, are in short supply. So it goes.

2026-02-20 07:12

Sales Keep Rolling Along

The Problem is What Everyone Already Expects

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