usdaed

But let us not be seduced by the glittering surface of quarterly earnings. The market, dear reader, is a fickle mistress, and valuations based on projected growth are built upon foundations of sand. I suspect, with a degree of morbid fascination, that Alibaba Group, currently languishing in relative obscurity (a mere $400 billion valuation – the indignity!), will eclipse Micron’s fortunes before the year is out. A bold claim, perhaps, but one I shall endeavor to justify, lest I be accused of mere financial necromancy.

I’ve been digging into these two, and it’s not just about returns. It’s about how those returns are made, and what you’re actually signing up for. Because, let’s be real, “exposure to gold” can mean a lot of things. And some of those things are less…golden than others.

The research boys at IDC figured every dollar dropped into the AI pot comes back almost fivefold. PwC thinks it could add fifteen points to global GDP by 2035. Numbers. They always sound cleaner than the reality. But even a cynical man like myself has to admit, that’s a hefty return.

The pitch is simple enough: you become a landlord without the actual… landlording. No midnight calls about leaky faucets, no awkward confrontations over late rent, no peeling wallpaper that haunts your dreams. Just… dividends. It’s the dream, really. A little slice of someone else’s rent check arriving each quarter. I suspect there’s a catch, of course. There always is. But I’m willing to entertain it, mostly because the alternative is another hour spent untangling Christmas lights.

The air, thick with the anxieties of those who traded in ephemeral things, carried the murmur of a market enamored with the new, the glittering promises of artificial intelligence. ServiceNow, a builder of solid, if unglamorous, foundations – enterprise software, they called it – found itself cast in the lengthening shadow of these digital phantoms. It was as if the market, suddenly seized by a fever dream, had forgotten the value of a well-constructed wall in its haste to chase mirages of self-aware machines. The company, despite its earnest embrace of these very same intelligences, found itself branded, unfairly, as a relic of a bygone era.

The company benefited from a substantial contract awarded by the U.S. Space Force – $816 million for the construction of eighteen satellites. While a significant sum, it is essential to remember that contracts, particularly those issued by government entities, do not guarantee future prosperity. They represent obligations fulfilled, not inherent value created. The total defense contract value exceeding $1 billion is a figure easily inflated by the sheer cost of modern technology, and does not necessarily indicate a sustainable business model.

Now, Microsoft. They’re in this AI thing. Big time. And Wall Street is predicting a 46% jump in the next year. 46%! It feels… aggressive. But, and this is a big but, the stock is… reasonably priced. Which is practically unheard of these days. It’s like finding a parking spot in Manhattan. Almost suspicious.

I, naturally, hold a few shares. A speculative flutter, really. But despite this minor uptick, I shan’t be adding to the position. Statistics, however hopeful, are simply that – numbers. And one particular number is proving decidedly tiresome. A turnaround could occur, of course. But one isn’t holding one’s breath. There’s a distinct lack of fizz.

February 25th. Another quarterly confessional. Another chance for Jensen Huang to spin gold from vaporware. They’ll be talking about Blackwell, Rubin, architectures so complex they make the Large Hadron Collider look like a child’s toy. They’ll be promising 50x performance gains, 75% reduction in GPU requirements, 90% cost savings. It’s a beautiful lie, meticulously crafted for the easily impressed. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet… lining up like addicts for their next fix. The whole thing smells of desperation, of a market straining at the seams.

Units of Microsoft stock currently causing mild anxiety: 73. Number of times I refreshed the trading app: approximately 147. Number of times I told myself “stay calm, it’s a long-term investment”: dwindling rapidly.