TMC: Digging for Trouble (and Metals)

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Now, TMC The Metals Company1. A fascinating case, really. The share price has been exhibiting the sort of behaviour usually reserved for startled badgers – a dramatic upward surge, followed by moments where one suspects it’s contemplating a sudden, subterranean retreat. Over the last year, it’s bounced about like a rubber ball in a goblin’s workshop, peaking at a rather optimistic 460% increase. Volatility, you see, isn’t merely a characteristic; it’s a lifestyle choice for this particular stock.

Before anyone considers joining this particular expedition – and expeditions, let’s be clear, are rarely without risk – a few observations are in order. Consider this less a stock analysis and more a cartographer’s warning about uncharted waters.

1. The Ambition of Submarine Excavation

TMC is attempting something… ambitious. They intend to build a business around mining the deep ocean floor. It’s been tried before, of course. Several times. Each time, it ended rather like those attempts to build perpetual motion machines – with a lot of enthusiasm and a distinct lack of actual motion. They highlight technological advancements, naturally. They always do. It’s the modern equivalent of claiming to have discovered a philosopher’s stone, only instead of turning lead into gold, they’re hoping to turn seawater into profit.

That isn’t to say it’s impossible. Just… improbable. And with a hefty dose of ‘we’re doing something nobody else has managed to do profitably’ thrown in for good measure. Remember, the ocean doesn’t particularly want to be mined. It’s a large, wet place with a vested interest in remaining that way.

2. The Economics of Deep-Sea Discomfort

Currently, TMC is, shall we say, in the pre-revenue phase. Which is a polite way of saying it’s currently operating at a loss. A significant loss. Building an undersea mining operation requires capital. A lot of it. Think of it as trying to build a castle out of diamonds – expensive, and prone to sinking. Losses are, therefore, likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Unless, of course, they discover a particularly lucrative vein of mermaid tears, but I wouldn’t hold your breath.

And even if everything goes according to plan (a dangerous assumption, naturally), there’s the small matter of actually extracting something. Mines, as a general rule, don’t always deliver what was promised. Quantity, quality, the occasional unexpected geological hiccup… it’s all part of the fun. And operating at such depths? That adds a layer of complexity – and cost – that land-based mining simply doesn’t have. Think of the insurance premiums alone!

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3. The Commodity Carousel

TMC aims to extract nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese. All vital for batteries, defense, infrastructure – the usual suspects. Commodity prices are currently high, which is why everyone is suddenly very interested in digging things up. It’s the economic equivalent of a feeding frenzy. This, naturally, has attracted investment. Which, in turn, fuels further production.

Here’s the rub: high prices rarely last. The very act of investing in production eventually leads to increased supply. And increased supply tends to… lower prices. It’s a cyclical pattern as predictable as the tides. So, even if TMC manages to build a functioning undersea mine, there’s no guarantee it will remain profitable. Mining, at its core, is a boom-and-bust business. Like a particularly unreliable weather system.

A Venture for the Bold (or Foolhardy)

At a fundamental level, TMC is a high-risk investment. A very high-risk investment. Only those with a robust appetite for uncertainty – and a willingness to potentially lose a significant portion of their investment – should consider it. And even then, a prudent approach might be to wait until the company is actually generating revenue. Or, at least, until they’ve proven they can keep the equipment from being swallowed by a particularly grumpy giant squid.

1The Metals Company. They don’t actually own the metals yet, of course. They merely intend to acquire them. There’s a subtle, yet significant, difference.

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2026-02-19 01:24