
The share price of Moderna (MRNA +5.24%) stirred briefly today, rising with a sort of hopeful tremor. News arrived, via The Wall Street Journal, that the Food and Drug Administration will, at least, consider their application for a seasonal influenza vaccine, slated for the 2026-2027 season. It is a small grace, really, considering the previous rejection. One almost expects a curt note attached: “We will look at it, but no promises.”
A Season for Hope, and Hesitation
It seems the initial submission lacked…sufficient reassurance. A polite way of saying the testing wasn’t quite there. Now, they promise further investigation, a deeper look at safety, particularly for those of a certain age. The FDA, it appears, is no longer inclined to simply rubber-stamp applications. A sensible development, one might think, though it delays the inevitable reckoning with the seasonal flu. The market, of course, prefers immediacy.
If all proceeds as planned—a considerable ‘if’ in these matters—the vaccine, designated mRNA-1010, could reach the market in time for the next flu season. August is the target, they say. One pictures earnest scientists in white coats, perpetually chasing a deadline that always seems just beyond reach. The sum involved – Fortune Business Insights estimates the global flu vaccine market at $9.2 billion annually – is, naturally, the driving force. It’s a considerable sum, enough to briefly animate a balance sheet.
A Question of Value, and Time
The investor’s enthusiasm is understandable, a momentary lift in spirits. But does it justify a sustained investment? That is the question, isn’t it? One observes the market’s fleeting affections with a certain detachment.
Valued at $18 billion, Moderna remains, at present, a company without profit. No earnings since 2022. Last year brought losses of $2.8 billion, a substantial sum lost to the ether. Cash burn continues, another $2.1 billion vanished. Analysts predict a return to profitability in 2029, and positive free cash flow in 2030. A long wait, even for the patient investor. One begins to suspect the market operates on hope, rather than demonstrable results.
Perhaps, then, the wisest course is to accept the momentary gain, and allow the share price to settle. To sell into the rally, as they say. It’s a quiet acknowledgement that even the most promising ventures are subject to the slow, inevitable erosion of time. The flu season will return, of course. And the market, with its capricious whims, will undoubtedly find another distraction.
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2026-02-18 21:24