They call them giants. Chevron and ExxonMobil. Both sprung from the same root – the wreckage of Rockefeller’s Standard Oil. A history of ambition and, let’s be honest, a talent for squeezing value from the earth. Sentimentality doesn’t buy stock, though. Just facts. And a little cynicism.
The question isn’t which is the bigger giant, but which is the slightly less damaged one. The one that’ll keep tossing out dividends when the price of crude decides to take a vacation. A simple enough ask, you’d think. But simplicity is a rare commodity in this business.
Chevron
Chevron. They dig it up, refine it, sell it. The usual drill. Their earnings took a hit last year – a 27.5% dip. Commodity prices, they say. As if the earth owes them a stable income. Still, they managed to cough up $16.6 billion in free cash flow. Enough to cover the $12.8 billion they tossed to shareholders. Generous, in a way. Or maybe just smart PR.
The Hess acquisition? A $53 billion gamble on reserves in Guyana and the Bakken. A big number. They talk about economies of scale. I see increased risk. But then, risk is the air we breathe in this game. The board upped the dividend by over 4%, to $1.78 a share. Thirty-nine years of increases. A streak. Impressive, if you ignore the underlying desperation to keep the herd happy.
ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil. Another behemoth. They pull crude and gas from the ground, ship it around, and turn it into everything from gasoline to plastic. Their earnings were down too, though they prefer to call it a “softening.” A softening is what happens to butter, not to billions. They generated $23.6 billion in free cash flow – a more conservative figure, they say. As if accounting tricks can change the laws of physics.
They tossed $17.2 billion to shareholders. A good gesture. They raised the dividend by 4%, to $1.03 a share. Forty-three years of increases. A longer streak than Chevron. But streaks can be misleading. A gambler doesn’t care how long you’ve been winning, only whether you’re winning now.
The Calculation
It’s close. Both companies are built on the same shaky foundation. Both are addicted to shareholder payouts. Both will likely survive, because survival isn’t about being right, it’s about having enough muscle to lean on. Chevron’s dividend yield is slightly higher, around 3.9%. A marginal advantage. But in this business, marginal advantages can be the difference between a comfortable retirement and a slow fade.
I’d lean toward Chevron. Not because it’s a sure thing – there are no sure things – but because the slightly higher yield suggests a slightly more desperate attempt to attract capital. And desperation, in the market, can be a signal. A signal that the price might just be right. But don’t mistake this for optimism. It’s just a calculation. A cold, hard calculation.
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2026-02-18 17:42