Market Shadows: Three Plays for a Downturn

The market’s got a twitch. Started as a polite rotation, a shifting of weight. Now it feels like something’s cracked. Tech’s losing its shine, and everything that smells even faintly of disruption is getting a cold shoulder. The smart money’s looking for cover.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 haven’t exactly folded yet, but they’re leaning that way. Fear’s a funny thing. It spreads faster than a rumor in a crowded room. When it hits, you want to be holding something solid. Something that doesn’t turn to dust when the music stops.

I’ve been looking at a few options. Vanguard’s got some ETFs that might just weather the storm. Not guarantees, of course. There are no guarantees in this business. But they’re worth a look. A cautious look.

1. Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF

The Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV +0.43%) is a long shot, a bit of a gambler’s play. Bonds aren’t exactly thrilling, but they’re a different animal than stocks. When stocks are bleeding, bonds sometimes catch a break. Long-term Treasuries are sensitive to interest rates, though. They can be volatile. Like a nervous thoroughbred.

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But if rates drop – and they usually do when the market’s in a panic – these bonds could move. A little upside in a world that’s mostly downside. It’s not a fortune, but it’s a place to hide.

2. Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF

The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC 1.35%) is a little more sensible. People still need soap and coffee, even when the world’s falling apart. These stocks aren’t going to make you rich, but they tend to hold up better when everything else is crashing. They’re the cockroaches of the market. They survive.

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Back in 2022, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF took a beating, a solid 18% drop. This one? It fell, sure, but not nearly as far. A loss is still a loss, but it’s a smaller one. And in a downturn, smaller losses matter.

3. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF

The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND 0.01%) is your basic insurance policy. It doesn’t chase fancy returns. It just holds a little bit of everything: corporate bonds, Treasuries, mortgage-backed securities. It’s a diversified spread. A solid, if unremarkable, foundation.

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Like all bonds, it’s sensitive to interest rates. But not as much as those long-duration Treasuries. It won’t make you rich, but it might just cushion the blow when the market decides to take a tumble. A little peace of mind, in a world that’s short on it.

Look, there are no easy answers. The market’s a messy business. But these ETFs? They’re worth considering. A little preparation. A little caution. It’s a small price to pay for a little sleep at night.

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2026-02-18 16:53