Quantum Computing: A Bubble, Darling?

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Right. So, everyone’s been terribly excited about quantum computing. It’s the new AI, apparently. Which, honestly, feels a bit…fast. Like, didn’t we just decide AI was going to take over the world? Now it’s quantum. It’s all a bit much for a sensible person, isn’t it? I mean, I’m trying to be a disciplined investor, honestly, I am. But the market… it’s just asking for trouble. And I have this nagging feeling about IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave. They’ve had a run, haven’t they? A spectacular run. Which, statistically speaking, usually means… well, you can guess.

The numbers are rather alarming, actually. Trailing twelve months? 670% to 6,217%. Honestly. It feels…unearned. Like finding £20 in an old coat pocket, only multiplied by several thousand. I suppose someone made a fortune. But the rest of us? We’re just along for the ride, hoping we don’t end up splattered against the wall when it crashes. Units of Quantum Hope Acquired: Several. Units of Rational Thought Employed: Questionable.

Apparently, these computers can do things normal ones can’t. Faster calculations, molecular simulations, all that. They say it could revolutionize drug discovery and make AI even more intelligent. (As if it wasn’t scary enough already.) Boston Consulting Group thinks it could be worth $450 to $850 billion by 2040. The Quantum Insider says a trillion by 2035. A trillion! It’s just… a lot of money. And a lot of expectation. And, frankly, I’m starting to suspect a lot of hype.

JPMorgan Chase, bless their enormous financial heart, announced a $1.5 trillion Security and Resiliency Initiative. Quantum computing made the list. Which, naturally, sent everyone into a frenzy. And Amazon’s Braket service is offering access to these machines. It’s all very…connected. Very…shiny. Very…potentially disastrous. It’s like a particularly enthusiastic dating app for tech companies. Everyone’s pairing up, promising the world, and I’m just sitting here wondering if I remembered to take the bins out.

But here’s the thing. The insiders are selling. A lot. $451.1 million from IonQ, $45.6 million from Rigetti, $118 million from D-Wave. That’s $615 million worth of shares dumped onto the market by the people who actually know what’s going on. It’s a bit like the captain abandoning ship, isn’t it? They’ll tell you it’s for tax reasons, of course. “Just covering my liabilities,” they’ll say with a perfectly straight face. But let’s be honest, it’s rarely just about the taxes. Hours Spent Analyzing Insider Trading: 7. Level of Suspicion: Sky High.

And the buying? Minimal. Almost non-existent. Two directors at IonQ bought a few shares, totaling about $2.1 million. A single director at D-Wave splurged on 82 shares. That’s it. It’s like going to a party and finding everyone’s already left. And you’re left wondering if you misread the invitation. Or if you’re just terribly uncool.

These companies are trading at astronomical price-to-sales ratios. They’re burning through cash at an alarming rate. And they’re relying on a technology that’s still years, maybe decades, away from widespread adoption. It reminds me of the dot-com bubble, or the cryptocurrency craze. Everyone gets swept up in the excitement, ignoring the fundamental risks. And then… well, you know how that ends. Number of Times I’ve Repeated “This Time It’s Different” to Myself: Too Many to Count.

So, here’s my conclusion. Quantum computing is fascinating. It has enormous potential. But it’s also incredibly risky. And the insider selling is a flashing red warning sign. I’m not saying it’s going to crash tomorrow. But I am saying that it’s time to be cautious. Very cautious. I may even sell my shares. (Don’t tell anyone.) Perhaps I’ll invest in something boring. Like…bonds. Or sensible shoes. It’s a long way from the glamour of quantum physics, but sometimes, the safest bet is simply…to be sensible.

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2026-02-18 13:13