Rivian: Still a Story, Just a Very Expensive One

by

Right, Rivian. (RIVN 7.11%). Let’s talk about it. The stock had a little bounce last week – a fleeting moment of optimism after they announced revenues that weren’t completely disastrous. And, honestly, good on them. But down 15% year-to-date? That’s…a choice. A bold one. Like wearing white after Labor Day, but with billions of dollars at stake. I mean, it’s not unexpected, is it? We all knew this wasn’t going to be a straight line to the moon.

The Q4 numbers weren’t pretty. Revenue down 26% year-over-year to around $1.3 billion. It’s a bit like going to a party and realizing you’ve accidentally worn two different shoes. Awkward. And yes, they lost money. A lot of money. But, and this is where it gets interesting, the losses weren’t quite as bad as the analysts feared. A small victory, I suppose. Like finding a tenner in an old coat pocket. It doesn’t solve your problems, but it’s a nice surprise.

They’re banking on 2026, naturally. The R2 is supposed to be the game-changer. The thing that turns everything around. They’re promising a huge jump in deliveries. Which, let’s be honest, is what they need. It’s all very… hopeful. And hope, as any seasoned investor knows, is a terrible strategy. But let’s play along for a minute.

2025: A Rocky Ride

Last year was…messy. Revenue dipped in Q2, then had a weird surge in Q3. Apparently, the electric vehicle tax credit expired, which caused a bit of a panic buy. It’s like when the bakery has a “last day” sale – suddenly everyone needs bread. And then, predictably, Q4 crashed. It’s a cycle. A beautiful, frustrating cycle.

Even if you smooth out those bumps, an 8% year-over-year revenue increase isn’t exactly setting the world on fire. And here’s the kicker: they’re valued at around $20.5 billion. Twenty. Five. Billion. Despite losing $3.6 billion and burning through $2.5 billion in cash. It’s…ambitious. Let’s just say I’ve seen more sensible valuations on antique spoons.

The 2026 Promise

Okay, so 2026. They’re projecting 62,000 to 67,000 vehicle deliveries. A 53% growth rate. That sounds good, doesn’t it? On paper, it’s lovely. They’re also hoping for improved adjusted EBITDA. Which, let’s be real, is investor-speak for “we’re still losing money, but maybe not as much.” Ramping up production of a new vehicle is never easy. It’s like trying to assemble flat-pack furniture after three glasses of wine.

The R2 is supposed to be the key. Lower manufacturing complexity, reduced costs, a wider addressable market. They’re aiming for that sweet spot – the average new vehicle price, a 5-seat SUV. It makes sense, logically. But logic doesn’t always win in this business. Sometimes, it just gets steamrolled by reality.

So, Should You Buy Rivian?

Here’s where I’m going to be brutally honest. Staying on the sidelines feels… prudent. 2026 could be a big year. But there are so many “ifs.” The automotive industry is a bloodbath. Tesla is breathing down everyone’s neck. The established automakers aren’t just going to sit back and watch Rivian steal their lunch money. And let’s not forget the supply chain issues, the rising interest rates, the general state of the world… It’s a lot.

If the stock were cheaper, maybe. But at this valuation? Investors are already pricing in a fairy tale. Strong sales, substantial profits, world domination… It’s a lot to ask. I’m not saying it can’t happen. But I’m also not willing to bet my mortgage on it. And honestly? I’ve got a perfectly good life without adding another high-stakes gamble to the mix. Sometimes, the smartest investment is simply… walking away.

Loading widget...

Read More

2026-02-18 06:52