Bitcoin, that glittering behemoth of speculative enthusiasm, currently drifts a staggering fifty percent beneath the ossified peak of $126,000 set down in last October. Investors, those earnest souls, tremble as they ponder when the digital coin will find its next abyss.
Addressing the matter, crafted by the seasoned market pundit Altcoin Sherpa, it appears the present phase of bearishism will not stretch beyond a single full rotation of the sun. In his modest estimation, Bitcoin may find its bottom-and perhaps rejoin the grand uptrend-next year’s calendar year.
Has Bitcoin Bottomed?
Sherpa, in a recent dispatch on X, clarified that his projection concerns only the direct descent from the lofty peak to the inevitable trough, excluding the subsequent idling known as accumulation.
Accumulation is a period of languid, sideways shuffles; price action that sighs and trades at low volumes. Historically, it lasts somewhere between two and four months.
Examining past cycles, Sherpa discerns a rather orderly gait. The year 2017 witnessed a tempestuous rally, mirrored in 2021, each followed by a steep, year-long default in 2018 and 2022.
Following each of those suffering retreats, yet another elongated period of calm unfolded, notably in 2019 and 2020. From the apex of 2017 to the nadir of 2018, and from the zenith of 2021 to the downpour of 2022, roughly a year elapsed for Bitcoin to complete its slide.
A recurring hallmark in such market nights is the final capitulation event-a dramatic, sharp sell‑off that signals the end of the decline.
Sherpa posits that a capitulation may already have happened in 2026, citing Bitcoin’s tumble from $100,000 to $60,000 as a possible final flush. If that reading holds true, the market might already be in the early stages of its contemplative pause.
Accumulation Could Already Be Underway
Because the rallies of 2024 and 2025 are structurally distinct, Sherpa expects the decline to differ as well. While the previous bear markets spanned roughly a year between peak and bottom with declines of 85% and 75% respectively, he does not foresee the current rut mimicking that exact pattern.
One explanation lies in the widening influence of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Even though these instruments can ebb while the market wanes, they have altered the flow of capital.
He also points to the protracted consolidation between $50,000 and $70,000, where Bitcoin lingered for nearly eight months. From a technical standpoint, such long ranges often serve as robust support zones during retracements.
Macroeconomic forces-equities, metals, risk appetite, and even advances in artificial intelligence-remain pivotal variables. Yet Sherpa is unconvinced that BTC must endure another seven months of steady decline to lay a bottom.
If the recent $100,000 to $60,000 slide indeed constituted Bitcoin’s last capitulation, then accumulation may already be in progress. Historically, this phase spans two to four months, or about 60 to 120 days.
Nevertheless, he acknowledges one paramount risk: the potential that the final capitulation has yet to occur. Were another sell‑off hatched-perhaps a descent from $75,000 toward $50,000-he would deem that the definitive bottoming event, and accumulation would likely ensue for a protracted period.
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2026-02-17 13:16