A Spot of Bothers: Markets & the Modern Malaise

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One does rather wish the Americans would make up their minds. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, bless their statistical hearts, recently announced a perfectly respectable increase in employment – 130,000 new positions, if you please – and a dip in that tiresome Consumer Price Index. A most agreeable double-whammy, one might think. And yet, the market seems determined to be gloomy. A decline, you understand. Quite unsporting.

Kevin Hassett, a perfectly sensible fellow, suggests this should encourage further cuts in interest rates. A boon for businesses, naturally. But the S&P 500, that rather excitable barometer of public sentiment, decided to take a different view. One is beginning to suspect it operates on pure whim.

It’s Complicated, Darling

The difficulty, you see, isn’t a simple one. The Federal Reserve, in its wisdom, doesn’t entirely trust the CPI. It prefers the personal consumption expenditures price index – a rather grand title, don’t you think? – which won’t be revealed until February 2026. A positively glacial pace, if you ask me. One feels a distinct lack of urgency.

Even if they did pay attention to the CPI, it’s still a touch above their target. And a robust employment figure, naturally, makes rate cuts less likely. Logic, you see. Though one sometimes wonders if it has any place in these affairs.

Then there’s the small matter of reliability. January figures are notoriously unreliable, a consequence of post-holiday shenanigans. And most of the jobs, it seems, were in healthcare. Hardly a sign of a broadly thriving economy, is it? One expects a bit more variety.

And let’s not forget the revisions. The previous estimate for job growth was… optimistic, shall we say? Revised downwards by a rather alarming amount. A considerable embarrassment, one imagines. The scale of the correction is rather… substantial. It does give one pause.

Deeper Discontents

Frankly, I suspect the market’s anxieties run deeper than mere economic indicators. Artificial intelligence, you see, is causing a bit of a stir. Software stocks are plummeting, transportation stocks are looking rather peaked, and even commercial real estate is feeling the pinch. A most unsettling tableau.

This isn’t about interest rates, darling. It’s about a fundamental shift in the economic landscape. AI is disrupting everything, and the market, quite understandably, is feeling a bit… twitchy.

Then there’s the looming specter of government spending. A rather substantial stimulus package, funded by debt, naturally. And President Trump, with his characteristic enthusiasm, is urging the Fed to cut rates. A dangerous combination, wouldn’t you agree? Fueling the fire, as it were.

And the tariffs. Oh, the tariffs. Threats of 25% on countries trading with Iran, 100% on Canadian imports. A most theatrical display. One almost expects a chorus line to appear.

Worse Than Uncertainty?

I’ve always maintained that investors dislike uncertainty. But I suspect instability is even more unsettling. And frankly, darling, things are beginning to look rather unstable. The jobs numbers are suspect, AI is wreaking havoc, and the government is… well, being the government.

The market, of course, often climbs a wall of worry. But this year, that wall seems particularly steep. A challenging ascent, to say the least. One requires a stout heart, a reliable broker, and a very large gin and tonic.

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2026-02-17 12:54