They say a man spends, on average, $172,500 on medical bills before he kicks the bucket. A grim calculation, isn’t it? But for those of us who play the stock market, it suggests a certain inevitability. People get sick. People require fixing. And fixing, these days, costs a fortune. So it goes.
I’ve been accumulating shares of Intuitive Surgical (ISRG +1.45%). Not because I want to think about medical expenses, but because it seems a reasonable place to put your money, given the circumstances. I intend to hold them for a long, long time. Here’s the story, as I see it.
The Machine and the Procedure
Intuitive Surgical, if you haven’t heard, makes robots. Not the kind that will take your job, necessarily, but the kind that assist surgeons. They boast that they’re about “life-enhancing care.” A marketing phrase, of course, but it’s hard to argue with the numbers. Over 16 million procedures performed worldwide. Systems in 72 countries. A new procedure starts every 11.75 seconds. It’s a relentless rhythm of incision and repair. They even have a robot for lung biopsies now, the Ion. A small machine poking around in the dark.
The clever part, the really clever part, isn’t selling the machines themselves. It’s the recurring revenue. About 75% comes from servicing and supplies. Disposable instruments, mostly. A constant drip of income. Like a very polite, very profitable vampire.
Still Growing, Against the Odds
They’re still adding machines, of course. 532 new da Vinci systems installed last quarter, up from the previous year. Revenue up 19%. It’s a steady climb. The stock has done reasonably well, too. Take a look:
| Time Period | Average Annual Return |
|---|---|
| Past 1 year | (16.88%) |
| Past 3 years | 26.39% |
| Past 5 years | 13.52% |
| Past 10 years | 23.86% |
| Past 15 years | 18.78% |
They’re expanding the use of the machines, too. The da Vinci 5 can now assist with certain cardiac procedures. More procedures, more supplies, more revenue. It’s a simple equation, really.
The Artificial Intelligence Angle
They’ve collected data from over 10 million procedures. A vast archive of human frailty and surgical intervention. And now, they’re applying artificial intelligence to it. The Ion, for example, uses AI to correct discrepancies between CT scans and the actual location of lung nodules. A small correction, perhaps, but it could mean the difference between a clean biopsy and a missed diagnosis. They claim it’s a solution to a real problem. And who are we to argue?
Is it Time to Buy?
The stock isn’t cheap, not exactly. But it’s cheaper than it was last year. It’s probably fairly valued, at best. So, you could wait for a pullback. Or you could invest incrementally. Or you could just jump in and hold on for the ride. It’s a long-term wager, of course. A bet on the inevitability of illness and the relentless march of technology. And, in the grand scheme of things, what else is there to bet on? So it goes.
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2026-02-16 17:42