SoFi: A Rocket with a Maybe

SoFi Technologies. The stock’s gone up 141% in two years. As of February 13th, anyway. Numbers are like that. They change. It’s down 39% from its peak in November 2025. Which feels like a long time ago, doesn’t it? So it goes.

People are asking if it’s too late to buy. A reasonable question. Most questions are, when you think about it. But let’s look at the guts of the thing, shall we?

The Numbers, Such as They Are

The stock’s been wobbling lately. Macro stuff, profit-taking, the usual suspects. It’s all just noise, really. A distraction from the inevitable heat death of the universe. But we’re investors, not astrophysicists. So, let’s focus on what SoFi is actually doing.

They’re growing. Adjusted net revenue went up 37% in the last quarter. That’s… substantial. The customer base is expanding too. Went from 10.1 million to 13.7 million in a year. People seem to want whatever SoFi is selling. Or at least, they’re clicking buttons. It’s hard to say what that means, really.

Valuation and the Illusion of Control

The forward price-to-earnings ratio is 32.7. Elevated, they call it. Which is a polite way of saying “expensive.” You don’t want to overpay for anything, not even hope. But then, what is a fair price? It’s a question philosophers have been asking for centuries. And they haven’t figured it out yet.

SoFi’s adjusted net income climbed 112% in 2025. That’s… encouraging. They expect 72% growth this year. The leadership team is forecasting 38% to 42% annualized adjusted earnings-per-share growth between 2025 and 2028. Numbers. They’re just numbers. But they do seem to be pointing upwards. A temporary illusion, perhaps. But a pleasant one.

If you’re willing to hold onto this stock for five to ten years, you might benefit. Then again, you might not. It’s all just a gamble, isn’t it? A beautifully complicated, statistically improbable gamble. So it goes.

2026-02-16 17:32

The Numbers, Such as They Are

Valuation and the Illusion of Control

Read More