The Software Soul: A Bear’s Reflection

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A peculiar unease settles upon the financial districts, a whisper of disruption carried on the digital winds. They speak of Artificial Intelligence, this new Golem of our age, threatening to dismantle the established order of software, to render years of coded labor…obsolete. A fashionable panic, certainly, but one born not of logic, but of a profound, almost spiritual, anxiety. Shareholders, those delicate creatures, tremble at the prospect of competition blooming everywhere, eroding the profits they so dearly cherish. It is as if the very foundations of their carefully constructed world are shifting beneath their feet.

I confess, I find this fear…overstated. A naive dread, perhaps, blinding them to the inherent resilience of value. This, then, presents a peculiar opportunity. A chance to acquire genuine, enduring businesses at prices that betray a lack of…understanding. Let us examine two such entities, those caught in the crosscurrents of this technological tempest, and attempt to discern, not merely their financial prospects, but the very essence of their being.

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Wix: The Architect of Dreams, Discounted

Wix.com, a platform for the creation of websites, has been cast aside, discarded like a worn-out tool. Down nearly seventy percent, they say. A harsh judgment, considering its decade-long commitment to empowering individuals to build their digital presence without the arcane mysteries of code. To punish it for the emergence of low-code solutions is akin to condemning the painter for the invention of the brush! It smacks of a peculiar shortsightedness, a failure to grasp the fundamental human desire for creation, for self-expression.

Wall Street, in its collective wisdom (or perhaps, its perpetual oscillation between hope and despair), assigns an average price target of $151 to this beleaguered enterprise. A substantial increase from its current trading price of $72. A discrepancy, wouldn’t you agree? A chasm between perception and reality. And, curiously, the very tools designed to threaten Wix—these AI assistants—promise to enhance its capabilities, to expand its reach, to unlock new possibilities. Revenue growth, though modest, has accelerated to fourteen percent. A subtle signal, perhaps, that the foundations remain solid.

The acquisition of Base44, a start-up specializing in no-code mobile app development, is a particularly intriguing development. A perfect complement to Wix’s existing platform. Virtually no revenue when acquired, yet projected to reach $50 million in annual recurring revenue by 2025. A phoenix rising from the ashes, one might say. A testament to the power of innovation, of relentless pursuit of value.

Free cash flow of $570 million over the past twelve months, a market capitalization of under $4 billion… It is a bargain, a veritable steal. A chance to acquire a durable growth stock at a price that borders on the absurd. A fleeting opportunity, I suspect, that will not last for long.

Adobe: The Weight of Legacy, and the Promise of Resilience

Adobe, the titan of creative software, has also suffered a decline, falling nearly forty-five percent over the past year. A sobering reminder that even the most established empires are not immune to the whims of the market. Concerns about AI disruption loom large, threatening to unravel decades of development, to render its vast suite of tools obsolete. The average price target of $429, compared to the current $258, reveals a similar disconnect between potential and perception.

The notion that a group of marketers, or a small team of developers, could simply replicate Adobe’s product suite with an AI bot…it is a fanciful delusion. They do not understand the sheer complexity, the countless hours of labor, the intricate web of integrations that underpin this ecosystem. They underestimate the value of trust, of reliability, of a proven track record. A subscription fee, however small, is a pittance compared to the cost of building and maintaining a comparable platform.

The true competition lies not with AI bots, but with companies like Figma and Canva, those nimble challengers encroaching on Adobe’s territory. But Adobe, for all its size and complexity, has proven remarkably resilient. Last quarter, it posted record revenue of $6.2 billion, a substantial backlog, and initiated a share buyback program. A sign of strength, a declaration of confidence.

Revenue has grown consistently for the past decade, and should continue to do so as the company raises prices and attracts new customers. Trading at just 12.5x trailing operating earnings—one of its lowest levels ever—Adobe presents an ideal opportunity to accumulate shares. A chance to invest in a company that has consistently delivered value, and is poised to do so for years to come.

The Illusion of Disruption

It may be easier to build competing products, yes. But that does not guarantee success. It does not account for the inertia of habit, the power of brand recognition, the inherent resistance to change. To abandon a trusted system for a new, unproven alternative is a leap of faith few are willing to take.

The notion that small business owners will suddenly embrace AI-powered coding platforms and abandon Wix, or that marketing teams will replace Adobe with a bot…it is laughable. A naive fantasy born of technological exuberance. AI disruption is a real risk, certainly, but it does not portend the immediate demise of established software companies. It is a gradual evolution, a shifting of the sands, not a cataclysmic upheaval.

Do not be swayed by the headlines, by the falling share prices. Now is the time to act. To seize the opportunity. To buy the dip on Adobe and Wix.com stock. For in the midst of chaos, there lies opportunity. And for the discerning investor, the path to profit is often paved with the anxieties of others.

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2026-02-15 22:23