Now, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang – a man who looks like he knows a thing or two about silicon and shenanigans – is stepping up to the mic. He’s suggesting this sell-off is… well, let’s just say it’s lacking a certain…logic. The man’s practically shouting from the rooftops, “These investors are acting like lemmings!” (Though, admittedly, a very profitable group of lemmings.)
Let’s not pretend it’s all smooth sailing. Johnson & Johnson, like any enterprise of its size, has its share of barnacles. Government price negotiations, a polite term for legalized extortion, are nibbling at profits. It’s a game of chicken, really – the company versus the bureaucrats, and the patient, as always, pays the piper. Then there’s the looming specter of patent cliffs. Losing exclusivity on a blockbuster like Stelara is akin to a magician losing his rabbit – the trick loses its appeal. And Imbruvica, once a shining star, is now facing a rather crowded constellation of competitors.
Now, don’t go gettin’ your hopes up, though. Just ’cause PIPPIN’s struttin’ doesn’t mean it’s the belle of the ball. Them derivatives and liquidity folks are whisperin’ sweet nothings about a bull trap-a fancy way of sayin’ this rally might be as reliable as a three-legged stool.
But one needn’t always chase after the latest buzzing thingamajig to achieve a decent return, you see. I’ve been casting a discerning eye over the market, and have alighted upon a rather unpretentious little company called Pool Corporation (POOL +1.80%), distributors of all things piscine. Up over fourteen percent year-to-date, it is, and I suspect there’s a good deal more where that came from. Rather like a well-maintained swimming pool, it just keeps on giving.
The company had, on the surface, delivered a quarterly report that would have pleased the bookkeepers. Fourth-quarter earnings and sales exceeded the anticipations of those who chart these things. Yet, a curious dissonance arose. The numbers, bright as they were, failed to stir the deeper currents of investor sentiment. It was as if a perfectly crafted melody fell upon ears preoccupied with a distant, gathering storm.
The trouble, it seems, is people. Not the freelancers, mind you – they’re busy clicking away. No, it’s the customers. Or rather, the lack of them. Six percent fewer active clients, they say. That’s a lot of empty chairs at the digital water cooler. Investors, being the jumpy creatures they are, got the jitters. They don’t like empty chairs. It suggests… well, it suggests nobody’s buying the sweets.
The company, in its quarterly report delivered this morning, revealed a curious duality. Sales figures, it must be admitted, exceeded the expectations of those who devote their energies to predicting the future – a task akin to divining the intentions of a capricious god. Yet, this apparent triumph was shadowed by a loss, larger than anticipated, a chasm between aspiration and reality that seems to perpetually haunt such ventures. The pursuit of profit, one observes, is rarely a straight path, but rather a winding road beset by unforeseen obstacles and the ever-present specter of failure.
But here’s the thing. I have a bad feeling. A sort of low-level, persistent anxiety that usually manifests as an urge to alphabetize the spice rack. And it’s telling me this dividend growth is… unsustainable. I’m almost certain they’ll announce a halt to the increases later this year, probably in October. It’s just… a hunch. A very financially-informed hunch, obviously. (I’ve read a lot of charts. It’s not healthy.)
The revelation came after the market’s slumber, in the quiet hours following yesterday’s earnings report. A performance, it appears, that did not merely meet expectation, but breached it, like a river overflowing its banks. And with it, a forecast – a glimpse into a future where the currents strengthen, not abate.
Revenue hit $2.8 billion for the quarter. A robust number, they claimed. Seventeen percent up. Numbers can lie. The loss deepened, though. To $353 million. A hole in the water. Last year it was merely unpleasant. Now it’s starting to look like a chasm. Analysts wanted more. They always do. They expected $3.1 billion in revenue and a smaller loss. They’re dreamers, those analysts.