Right. So, Alibaba. It’s been…a year. A recovery, they’re calling it. Which is good, I suppose. Though, honestly, my definition of ‘recovery’ usually involves a large gin and tonic and a weekend where I don’t look at a single financial chart. Still, the geopolitical stuff seems to have calmed down a bit – which is a relief. And Jack Ma’s back. Which is…interesting. It feels like waiting for a slightly eccentric, but very powerful, relative to reappear after a long holiday. Investor confidence is up, apparently. I mostly feel bewildered.
Now, earnings are due on or around February 19th. And that’s where it gets tricky. Do I add shares before the report? Or do I just…hide under the duvet? It’s always tempting to hide. I’ve been doing a lot of thinking (and a lot of online shopping, let’s be honest) and it feels like a bit of a gamble. A really, really big gamble. One that involves potentially losing a significant portion of my (already dwindling) savings.
Mixed Signals and My Increasing Anxiety
I’ve been looking at the recent earnings. And it’s…patchy. They missed estimates three times out of the last four quarters. Which, let’s be real, isn’t exactly inspiring. Though, they did beat estimates last December, so there’s that. Small mercies. The stock rallied 45% last year, which is impressive, I guess. But most of that happened between August and October. So, it feels a bit like a fleeting moment of optimism before everything inevitably goes wrong.
They’re talking about AI-driven growth. Which sounds impressive. But I’m starting to suspect that everyone is just saying ‘AI’ to make their numbers look better. It’s the new ‘synergy’. It means nothing. Absolutely nothing. Except maybe a slightly inflated stock price.
Financially, it’s…complicated. Cloud revenue is up 30%. Which is good. E-commerce is up 12% and 14%. Also good. But one of their smaller businesses is down 27%. Which is…not so good. Overall revenue is up 3%, which feels…underwhelming. Like a polite nod rather than a resounding success.
The P/E ratio is 22. Which is less than Amazon (28) and Sea Limited (47). Which is…reassuring? Maybe. But last summer it was 12. So, it feels like things are getting…expensive. Like a really nice handbag that you can’t quite justify buying.
Should I Click ‘Buy’ or ‘Panic’?
Honestly? I’m leaning towards ‘refrain’. I think. It’s just…everything feels a bit fragile. The stock has improved, yes. The revenue growth is encouraging. And the P/E ratio is relatively cheap. But geopolitical concerns haven’t magically disappeared. And they’ve missed earnings estimates a lot recently.
Amazon, with its less volatile business environment, seems…safer. Like a sensible pair of shoes. Alibaba feels like those really high heels you bought on a whim. They look amazing, but you know you’re going to regret wearing them.
Here’s a list of things currently causing me stress:
- Units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 2
- Hours Spent Watching Charts: 11
- Number of Panicked Texts to Friends: 27
- Number of Times I’ve Considered Becoming a Goat Farmer: 5
I think the biggest problem is the history of missed estimates. It just feels…likely that they’ll fall short again. And if they do, the stock is more likely to go down than up. Which would be…disappointing. And expensive. And require more gin.
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2026-02-14 04:42