Archer Aviation: A Gamble in Thin Air

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Archer Aviation. The name sounded like a half-forgotten dream. Electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft. eVTOLs. They were selling the future, one battery charge at a time. The stock, trading around seven bucks a share as of late, was a whisper in a crowded room. A long shot. And I’d seen enough long shots to know how they usually ended.

The pitch was simple: air taxis. Beat the gridlock. A smooth ride for the well-heeled. But the market? They talked about trillions. Trillions are easy to talk about. Actually getting to them? That’s where the trouble started. It smelled like a story, and stories, in my line of work, usually had a twist.

Archer had managed to attract some serious company. The military. Tech giants like Nvidia and Palantir. They were all circling, sniffing for potential. It wasn’t the technology they were after, not exactly. It was the idea of the technology. The promise. Wall Street, predictably, was estimating a low-altitude market worth nine trillion over the next few decades. Nine trillion. The kind of number that made your head ache and your wallet nervous.

But here’s the thing: Archer hadn’t actually sold anything yet. Pre-revenue. A beautiful concept with an empty bank account. Analysts were forecasting sales later this year. Forecasts. Like reading tea leaves in a hurricane. The air was thick with speculation, and speculation rarely paid dividends.

What Moves the Needle?

The stock wasn’t moving on fundamentals. There weren’t any. It was moving on narratives. Every press release, every handshake with a potential partner, sent a jolt through the share price. Retail investors and day traders were pouring in, mistaking PR for progress. It was a house of cards, built on hope and hype. Volatility wasn’t a risk; it was the point. Swing traders, not institutional investors, were the ones holding the bag.

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Worth the Flutter?

Valuation? A joke. They’d announced a $6 billion backlog back in 2024. Six billion in potential orders. A number that looked good on paper, until you started asking questions. How much of that backlog was real? When would they actually receive payment? What was the timeline for delivery? It was like trying to nail jelly to a wall.

Investing in Archer didn’t feel like buying into a business. It felt like buying a lottery ticket. A speculative play. A gamble. The kind of gamble that usually left you with empty pockets and a bad taste in your mouth. The promise was there, shimmering like a mirage, but the substance? It was missing.

I figured the stock had further to fall before it even thought about soaring. For my money, I’d pass. There were other games in town. Games where the odds weren’t quite so stacked against you. The sky’s the limit, they said. But sometimes, the only limit is your own good sense.

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2026-02-13 18:12