Alphabet at $5 Trillion: A Reasonable Obsession

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They say a trillion dollars doesn’t grow on trees. Which is true, mostly. Although, considering the amount of server farms Google maintains, it’s probably closer to a very meticulously cultivated orchard. I’ve been watching Alphabet, Google’s parent company, for a while now. Not in a creepy, stock-stalking way, but more like observing a particularly ambitious neighbor. They’re currently hovering around the $3.9 trillion mark, which, let’s be honest, is a sum that makes my retirement account weep. And I’ve decided, with the sort of unwavering confidence only a moderately anxious investor can muster, that $5 trillion is within reach. Before my barista knows I’m taking this seriously.

Nvidia, of course, briefly hit that $5 trillion mark, then wobbled. It’s like watching a tightrope walker. Impressive, but also deeply unsettling. Alphabet, though, feels…different. It’s not just about the numbers. It’s about the sheer, almost frightening ubiquity of the company. I was at a family barbecue last week, and even my Uncle Harold, who still thinks the internet is a fad, was asking Siri – Siri! – to identify a particularly stubborn weed. It’s a takeover, really, subtle and complete. And, as an investor, I’m strangely okay with that.

The key, everyone keeps saying, is Artificial Intelligence. And it’s true. I remember when chatbots were a novelty, something you’d stumble upon late at night and ask increasingly ridiculous questions. Now, Google Search, powered by their Gemini models, is actually…useful. It’s terrifyingly efficient. I typed in a question about the proper way to fold a fitted sheet – a question that has haunted me for decades – and received an answer, complete with a video, in under three seconds. My therapist is going to be thrilled. It’s also making them a lot of money, which is, admittedly, my primary concern.

They’ve redesigned Search, layering these “AI Overviews” on top of the usual list of links. It’s like they’re saying, “We know you’re lazy. We’ll just give you the answer.” And we are. We really are. I used to spend hours clicking through articles, convincing myself I was being thorough. Now, I just accept the first answer Google gives me, and move on. It’s a shortcut, a compromise, a sign of the impending apocalypse, and a very smart business move. The revenue is up 17%, quarter over quarter. Which means they’re doing something right, or we’re all just easily manipulated.

But Search isn’t the whole story. Google Cloud is growing even faster, up 48%. Apparently, everyone is rushing to rent computing power for their AI projects. It’s like a digital gold rush, and Google is selling the shovels. They’ve even designed their own AI chips, these “tensor processing units,” which sounds vaguely threatening. It’s all very futuristic, and I, for one, am happy to let someone else worry about the technical details. The backlog of orders is staggering – $240 billion. That’s enough to make even a seasoned investor feel a little dizzy.

So, how does Alphabet get to $5 trillion? The math isn’t complicated, really. They’re currently trading at a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio, lower than some of their peers. Analysts predict earnings will continue to grow over the next few years. If they maintain their current P/E ratio, or even nudge it up slightly, the stock could easily soar by 23.4% by the end of 2027. That would put them well over the $5 trillion mark. It’s not a guarantee, of course. But it feels…plausible. And in the world of investing, plausibility is often enough.

I’m not saying you should mortgage your house and buy Alphabet stock. I’m just saying it’s a company worth watching. It’s a reflection of our times, our anxieties, and our increasing reliance on technology. And, as an investor, I’m cautiously optimistic. Maybe, just maybe, we’re all on the verge of becoming a little bit richer. Or, at the very least, a little bit more connected.

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2026-02-13 15:22