Right. So, Sandisk (SNDK +5.10%). It’s been, well, the stock, hasn’t it? One of those things you vaguely meant to research ages ago but then got distracted by, you know, life. Anyway, it dipped 14% recently. Fourteen percent! Which, let’s be honest, is enough to make anyone reach for the chamomile tea. But, and this is the bit I’m trying to convince myself of, it might actually be… an opportunity? It’s trading at a forward P/E of 15 for fiscal 2026, and a measly 7.5 for 2027. Which, according to the people who understand these things, isn’t awful. Not awful at all.
Units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 12. Hours Spent Watching Charts: 9. Number of Panicked Texts to Friends: 24. It’s a work in progress, this whole ‘sensible investor’ thing. Anyway, Sandisk makes NAND flash memory. Apparently, it’s quite important. They spun it off from Western Digital a year ago, which sounds… complicated. It’s one of the few pure-plays in this market, which means I have to pretend to understand what that means. Apparently, NAND has always been a bit of a rollercoaster, but now it seems like it’s at the start of a “supercycle.” A supercycle. It sounds… exhausting.
A few years ago, everything was a mess. The pandemic happened, everyone wanted electronics, memory makers overbuilt, prices crashed, margins turned negative. It was, as they say, a disaster. I suspect my own finances have had similar moments. The point is, things were bad. Really bad. Then everyone started cutting back on NAND and focused on DRAM (dynamic random access memory – another thing I’m pretending to understand). And then HBM (high-bandwidth memory) came along. It’s apparently crucial for AI, which, let’s be honest, is the only thing anyone is talking about these days. It needs a lot of wafer capacity, so it’s gobbling up all the resources. It’s like a hungry monster, really.
And then, surprise, surprise, AI data centers needed a lot of high-performance solid-state drives (SSDs) that use NAND to store data. So, production was slashed, demand surged, prices skyrocketed, and now there’s a NAND shortage. It’s a classic supply and demand situation, really. Though, honestly, I usually just end up demanding more chocolate. Anyway, Sandisk is benefiting from all this. Revenue jumped 61% last quarter, gross margins expanded from 32.3% to 50.9%, and earnings per share surged fivefold. Fivefold! It’s almost enough to make one believe in the market.
Apparently, the NAND market is going from a cyclical business to a structural growth story thanks to AI. Which sounds… stable. Which is nice. Sandisk is in an enviable position, poised for huge growth. So, the recent dip? It might just be a buying opportunity. I’m still slightly terrified, naturally. But maybe, just maybe, this time it’s different. Will become disciplined long-term investor. (Note to self: revisit this statement in approximately five minutes.)
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2026-02-13 03:43