Dow 100,000? A Trump Prediction

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So, Donald Trump, as is his wont, has tossed a rather large number into the financial ether – 100,000 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. By the end of his term, no less. Now, predicting the future is a tricky business, even for those who aren’t actively attempting to rewrite the laws of physics (or, in this case, market behavior). It’s a bit like trying to predict which way a particularly stubborn pigeon will fly. Possible, certainly, but not exactly a sound investment strategy.

Record Stock Market, and National Security, driven by our Great TARIFFS. I am predicting 100,000 on the DOW by the end of my Term. REMEMBER, TRUMP WAS RIGHT ABOUT EVERYTHING! I hope the United States Supreme Court is watching.

On the surface, it sounds like the sort of optimistic pronouncement one might expect from, well, just about anyone trying to rally the troops. After all, the Dow has enjoyed a good run lately – three years of roughly 13% gains is nothing to sniff at. But asking for another 26% annually? That’s…ambitious. It’s akin to expecting your garden gnome to suddenly develop a penchant for competitive marathon running.

But here’s the thing. Trump has a knack, shall we say, for influencing markets. Not always predictably, mind you, but influencing nonetheless. It’s a bit like discovering that your eccentric uncle is a surprisingly effective puppeteer. You know it’s going to be unusual, and you’re not entirely sure what’s going to happen, but you’re pretty sure something will.

A Brief History of Trumpian Market Movements

Let’s rewind a bit. Remember those “Liberation Day” tariffs? The initial announcement sent a shiver through the markets. The Dow dipped about 16%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 fared even worse. It was a clear signal that trade wars aren’t won with pleasantries. Then came the sudden about-face, the negotiations, and the promise of relaxed tariffs. And, lo and behold, the markets rallied. It was a fascinating display of economic jujitsu.

Then there was the Greenland saga. The idea of buying Greenland – a large, icy island, let’s not forget – caused a bit of geopolitical head-scratching. It didn’t exactly trigger a market crash, but it certainly injected a dose of uncertainty into the atmosphere. When Trump clarified he wasn’t, in fact, planning an arctic land grab, stocks perked up a bit. It just goes to show, sometimes the most effective economic policy is simply not attempting to purchase an entire country.

And who could forget the American Eagle ad with Sydney Sweeney? A perfectly serviceable advertisement, really, until Trump weighed in. A public endorsement later, and the stock jumped 24%. It’s a reminder that in the modern era, celebrity endorsements aren’t just for toothpaste and perfume; they can move markets too.

Most of these moves, however, are short-lived bursts of enthusiasm or anxiety. Sustained, multi-year gains require something more substantial. Think of the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act of 2017. While the initial reaction was a bit choppy, the overall optimism surrounding the cuts helped propel the Dow higher throughout the year. It’s like giving the economy a gentle nudge in the right direction.

What Might Trump Have Up His Sleeve This Time?

So, what levers might Trump pull to reach that 100,000 mark? Lower interest rates are always a popular choice, though the Federal Reserve seems hesitant at the moment. Then there’s the idea of “tariff stimulus checks” – essentially, giving people money back from the tariffs collected. It’s a bit like robbing Peter to pay Paul, but it might give the economy a temporary boost. Stimulus checks during the pandemic certainly helped the S&P 500 rebound.

And, of course, there’s the possibility of the Federal Reserve loading up on mortgage-backed securities again. It’s not exactly a recipe for long-term stability, but it can provide a short-term injection of liquidity. It’s like temporarily inflating a balloon – it looks good for a while, but eventually, it’s going to pop.

Will Trump actually get the Dow to 100,000? It’s a long shot. But dismissing the possibility entirely would be unwise. Trump has a knack for bending the rules, and a way of moving the markets in his favor. It’s a peculiar talent, to be sure, but one that any serious investor should keep an eye on. Because, in the world of finance, as in life, the unexpected is often the most profitable.

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2026-02-12 18:22