So, Advance Auto Parts (AAP +5.25%). Apparently, people are getting excited. It’s always something, isn’t it? The stock ticked up again today, and someone pointed out it’s up 51.9% in 2026. Which, statistically, means absolutely nothing. My aunt Mildred saw a similar bump in her Beanie Baby collection back in ’98, and look how that turned out. Dust collectors, the lot of them.
The Value Proposition (Still)
I mentioned this stock a while back, mostly because it was begging for attention. It’s one of those “deep value” plays, which is Wall Street’s way of saying “it should be doing better, but isn’t.” The idea, as I understand it, is that if Advance Auto could just… function… at the level of O’Reilly or AutoZone, it would take off. A low bar, really. Like expecting a dachshund to clear a hurdle.
The problem is, this story has been playing out for a decade, and every CEO who’s come through has left looking slightly defeated. Shane O’Kelly, the current captain, is at least trying something comprehensive. He used to run HD Supply, which, as far as I can tell, involves a lot of SKUs and timely delivery. The holy grail of retail, apparently. I once tried to order a replacement toaster oven online, and it arrived three weeks later, dented, and smelling faintly of regret. So, you can imagine my skepticism.
It’s not that the business is inherently flawed. It’s just… Advance Auto doesn’t seem particularly good at the whole “getting the right parts to the right place at the right time” thing. A crucial detail, you’d think. Like a baker being bad at baking.
O’Kelly’s Gambit
He’s closed over 700 locations, which, honestly, sounds like a good start. Less inventory to mismanage, fewer disgruntled customers. He’s also opening new stores in areas where they actually have a chance, and these “market hub” stores are supposed to have more parts available. It’s all… logical. Which, in the world of corporate turnarounds, is almost unsettling.
The earnings report is coming up, and everyone’s hoping for miracles. Profit margins, positive guidance… the usual. But even O’Kelly is bracing for bad news. 3M is warning about a weak aftermarket, and some paint company (apparently coatings are a big deal) just reported dismal sales. So, Advance Auto is swimming upstream in a sea of disappointment.
Honestly, they could report flat sales, and if O’Kelly can just convince everyone he’s making progress, the stock might actually go up. It’s a low bar, of course. But in this market, low bars are all we have. It’s like celebrating a participation trophy, but with slightly more money involved. And a lot more anxiety.
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2026-02-12 02:22