Upstart’s Wobble: A Tale of Founders & Forecasts

The numbers, on the face of it, should have been summoning celebratory banquets. Revenue up 35% – a respectable growth spurt, even for a company dealing in the notoriously fickle art of assessing who deserves credit. They’d even managed to turn a profit, a feat often considered optional in the early stages of… well, whatever it is they’re doing these days.¹ And yet, as of this afternoon, shares in Upstart (UPST 14.17%) were experiencing a decidedly un-festive decline. A drop of 13.5%, to be precise. Which, in the language of the market, translates to ‘mild panic’.

The official explanation, naturally, involves ‘earnings estimates’ and ‘analyst expectations.’² Perfectly serviceable excuses, but they rather ignore the more… qualitative tremors shaking investor confidence. It’s rarely about the numbers themselves, you see. It’s about the stories the numbers tell.

The Shifting Sands of Leadership

Let’s be clear: the last quarter wasn’t a disaster. Loan originations were up a healthy 86%, suggesting a continued demand for their… unique approach to lending. Their projected sales for 2026, around $1.4 billion, represent a significant improvement over last year’s $1.0 billion. All very promising. Except, of course, that promises are like weather forecasts: subject to change without notice.

The first cause for concern is the impending departure of Dave Girouard, one of the company’s founders and, until recently, its CEO. He’s handing the reins to Paul Gu, another co-founder and the current CTO. Now, one might think a smooth internal transition would be reassuring. But in the chaotic realm of high finance, the departure of a founding figure is akin to the High Priestess losing her familiar. It suggests… a shift in the magical energies at play.

It’s not that Gu is necessarily unqualified. It’s just that Girouard and Upstart had become… synonymous. A bit like trying to separate a goblin from his hoard. And investors, being the superstitious creatures they are, don’t much like it when the familiar face vanishes.

The second, and perhaps more unsettling, development is Upstart’s decision to cease providing quarterly guidance. They’ll now limit their public forecasts to annual estimates. Now, some companies don’t offer any guidance, content to shroud themselves in impenetrable mystery. But Upstart had grown accustomed to offering a peek behind the curtain. Removing that peek, even partially, is like telling a fortune-teller she’s no longer allowed to look into the crystal ball.

A Buying Opportunity, Perhaps?

The market’s reaction, while predictably knee-jerky, isn’t entirely irrational. The departure of a founder and a reduction in transparency are, shall we say, less than ideal. But knee-jerk reactions are rarely based on careful consideration. They’re more akin to a startled badger digging a hole.

Once the dust settles – and it always does, eventually – this sell-off may well present a buying opportunity. Upstart remains committed to an annualized revenue growth rate of 35% through 2028, and analysts anticipate further acceleration in 2027. Furthermore, they’ll be publishing monthly loan origination metrics, partially offsetting the reduced quarterly guidance. It’s a bit like taking away one candle, then offering a slightly smaller one in its place.

The real challenge, then, isn’t predicting the future (a fool’s errand, if ever there was one). It’s simply waiting for the market to regain its composure. For the badgers to stop digging. And for investors to remember that even the most promising alchemies sometimes require a little… patience.

¹The art of convincing people to lend money to others. A practice that has been around for millennia, and continues to thrive despite overwhelming evidence that most people are terrible at assessing risk.

²Numbers conjured by individuals whose primary skill is making educated guesses. Often based on little more than wishful thinking and a healthy dose of optimism.

2026-02-11 20:43

The Shifting Sands of Leadership

A Buying Opportunity, Perhaps?

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