Sherwin-Williams: Paint & Patience

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They speak of Sherwin-Williams (SHW +1.09%) as a titan, a century and a quarter old. A survivor. They tally the profits – $3.34 billion now, a five-fold increase from the days when men still believed in progress. A 13,470% return for those who held the stock, they boast. Numbers. Always numbers. But what do numbers tell us of the man who smears the paint on the wall, the woman who chooses the shade of hope for a new room? Little, I suspect.

The company admits, with a practiced humility, to a “challenging environment.” A delicate phrasing for a slowdown. For the carpenter who sees fewer contracts, the homeowner postponing repairs. The markets, of course, react. A flat return in the last year, while the S&P 500 dances ahead. They call it a correction. I call it gravity. Everything falls eventually.

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The CEO speaks of a “magic number.” The 6% mortgage rate. As if a decimal point holds the key to prosperity. They wait for the Fed to cut rates, for the banks to loosen their grip. They believe in these grand levers, these manipulations of capital. I believe in the stubborn will of those who build, who mend, who make do with what they have. They will paint, regardless. But at what cost?

The Weight of a Mortgage

For years, the cost of borrowing climbed, mirroring the anxieties of a nation. The 30-year fixed rate, once a gentle slope, became a wall. Homes became less attainable, dreams deferred. Sherwin-Williams, reliant on the building trades, felt the pinch. Two-thirds of their profits tied to the whims of a housing market built on debt. A precarious foundation, wouldn’t you say?

Now, the rate dips. A few cuts from the Fed, whispers of more to come. The markets cheer. Shares rally 12% on the promise of renewed construction. But is this genuine recovery, or simply a fleeting illusion? A temporary reprieve before the next crisis descends? I suspect the latter. The problems run deeper than interest rates. They are etched into the very fabric of this system.

They forecast a 74% chance of further cuts in June. They speak of a dramatic drop, rates plummeting to 2.75%. Such certainty. Such arrogance. As if the future can be predicted with such precision. The world rarely conforms to our neat calculations. But the speculators, they always gamble. And Sherwin-Williams, they benefit from the frenzy.

A Familiar Pattern

They point to the surge from 2020-2021, when low rates fueled a building boom. They suggest history will repeat itself. But times have changed. The cracks are wider now. The foundations are weaker. To assume a simple replay of the past is to ignore the lessons of experience. It’s a fool’s errand.

They tout the company’s resilience, its 47-year streak of dividend increases. They speak of “Dividend King” status. Fine. But a dividend is merely a share of the spoils. It doesn’t address the fundamental inequities. It doesn’t build lasting prosperity. It simply redistributes wealth from the many to the few.

So, is Sherwin-Williams a buy? Perhaps. If you believe in the cyclical nature of markets. If you are willing to gamble on the whims of the Fed. If you are content to profit from the labor of others. But I remain skeptical. I see a company tethered to a fragile system, reliant on debt and speculation. A company that will ultimately be subject to the same forces that grind down us all. The paint may be fresh, but the walls are crumbling.

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2026-02-11 14:23