IonQ: A Quantum Leap of Faith (Or Just Falling?)

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Right. So, everyone’s terribly excited about Artificial Intelligence. Which is good, I suppose. It’s certainly better than worrying about the price of avocados, although, frankly, both seem equally unpredictable. And now, within the AI frenzy, there’s this…quantum computing thing. It sounds terribly futuristic, doesn’t it? Like something out of a Bond film. Everyone’s looking at semiconductors, data centers, the usual suspects. But then there’s IonQ. And honestly? It’s all a bit…stressful.

IonQ (IONQ 0.65%). The name sounds like a cleaning product, doesn’t it? Anyway, it was briefly all the rage, shares shooting up like a caffeinated squirrel. But now? Well, now it’s down nearly 60% from its peak. Which is… concerning. Is this a ‘falling knife’ situation? Or are clever people quietly scooping up the bargains? I honestly haven’t decided. Probably best to just lie low and avoid looking at the charts. That usually helps.

It’s Growing, But…

Apparently, a few years ago, IonQ wasn’t making much money at all. Which is, you know, a bit of a problem for a company. But they’re now predicting over $100 million in sales for 2025. Impressive, yes. Unprecedented, possibly. But it does make one wonder…what exactly are they selling? It’s not like everyone’s suddenly demanding quantum-powered toasters.

The problem, as I see it, is that quantum computing is currently…well, mostly theoretical. It’s a lot of research and development, a lot of hoping that it will eventually be useful. It’s like having a very expensive, incredibly complicated prototype, but no actual product. Which is fine, if you’re a university. Less ideal if you’re a publicly traded company. It feels a bit like that experimental sourdough starter I attempted last year. Lots of effort, minimal reward.

So, what’s driving this growth? Acquisitions, apparently. Lots and lots of acquisitions. They bought five companies in 2025, three so far in 2026. And now they’re trying to buy SkyWater Technology for $1.8 billion, plus some software company. It’s like they’re building a quantum empire, one purchase at a time. Which sounds grand, in theory. But it feels a bit…desperate. It’s like me rearranging the furniture every week, hoping it will magically solve all my problems.

Been There, Seen That

The thing is, building these quantum AI systems is expensive. And right now, they’re not exactly generating a lot of revenue. Through the first nine months of 2025, IonQ reported net losses of $1.3 billion. One point three billion. I’ve lost more than that on bad dates, frankly. And the way they’re funding this whole operation? By issuing stock. Lots and lots of stock. It’s like printing money, only with more complicated paperwork. It’s all very…unsustainable.

My units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 12. Hours Spent Watching Charts: 9. Number of Panicked Texts to Friends: 24. The point is, existing investors are getting diluted. And the selling pressure is mounting. I suspect investor tolerance for this financial engineering is about to hit its limit. It’s like that diet I tried last month. Started strong, ended with a family-sized chocolate cake.

Should You Buy IonQ?

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Even after the recent sell-off, IonQ has a price-to-sales ratio of 104. One hundred and four! That’s roughly double or triple what investors were paying for internet stocks during the dot-com boom. Remember the dot-com boom? It ended badly. Just saying.

Take Cisco, for example. They had a P/S multiple of 33 and a market capitalization of $555 billion. Then the bubble burst, and their market value plummeted by 77%. History doesn’t repeat itself exactly, but it does rhyme. And right now, IonQ feels suspiciously rhyming with Cisco. I suspect, within one year, the stock could be trading closer to $10. That’s a 70% decline from where it is today. Which would be… unpleasant.

I’m now going to lie down. And possibly avoid looking at any financial news for the foreseeable future. It’s all a bit much, really.

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2026-02-11 08:02