Oscar Health: A Glimmer in the Static

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Oscar Health. The name sounded optimistic, like a washed-up prizefighter hoping for a comeback. Tuesday, the stock ticked up. Not a surge, mind you, just a little lift. Powered by what they called “optimistic guidance.” Guidance. That’s what they always call it when they’re trying to sell you a bridge. They missed the numbers, naturally. But the future? The future was bright. Or so they said. The stock gained a shade under two percent. A whisper in a hurricane.

The Shortfall

Revenue hit $2.8 billion for the quarter. A robust number, they claimed. Seventeen percent up. Numbers can lie. The loss deepened, though. To $353 million. A hole in the water. Last year it was merely unpleasant. Now it’s starting to look like a chasm. Analysts wanted more. They always do. They expected $3.1 billion in revenue and a smaller loss. They’re dreamers, those analysts.

Membership rolled over two million. That’s something, I suppose. More bodies to potentially lose money on. It was under 1.7 million last year. Growth. It’s a word they like. I prefer solvency.

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Looking Ahead (With a Grain of Salt)

Oscar is looking at the future. They see sunshine and lollipops, apparently. They’re projecting $18.7 to $19 billion in revenue next year. And a profit. Between $250 and $450 million. They lost $334 million last quarter. That’s a swing. A big swing. Analysts were thinking under $12.8 billion. Someone’s smoking something expensive.

A confident management team? Maybe. Or maybe they’re just good at telling stories. I like a little realism. I’ll watch them. See if they can actually deliver on that projection. It feels like a long shot. A very long shot. But in this market, you learn not to discount anything. Especially not a glimmer in the static.

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2026-02-11 04:13