Bumble: Five Years On (and a Bit of a Disaster)

Right. So, Bumble. It went public five years ago, February 11th, 2021, if you’re keeping track (I’m not, precisely, but the research department sent me the date, so…), and everyone got terribly excited. It soared, apparently, 76% on the IPO. Which, let’s be honest, is the sort of thing that makes one feel immediately inadequate, even if you weren’t planning on investing in an online dating app in the first place.

They had 40 million monthly users then, across Bumble and Badoo. A lot of people swiping. The business model was “freemium,” which is a lovely word, really. It implies generosity, but also a subtle expectation of future financial gain. The idea was to lure everyone in with free likes and messages, then gently persuade them to upgrade for…well, more likes and messages, presumably. It felt…optimistic. A bit like hoping a free sample of artisanal cheese will lead to a lifetime subscription.

The numbers, as they always do, tell a slightly less rosy tale. Revenue was $376.6 million in the nine months to September 2020. Not nothing. But a net loss of $84.1 million. Still, they pointed to Badoo being profitable two years after launch (2008!), and Bumble monetizing in 2016. Progress, of a sort. They had 1.1 million paying users by September 2020. A respectable number. I made a list of things I’ve achieved in the last five years. It was…short.

So, what if you’d actually done it? What if you’d thrown a grand at Bumble back then? Well, let’s not dwell. It’s a bit like asking what if you’d bought that ridiculously overpriced handbag. You’d have 25.5 shares. And those 25.5 shares are now worth…$75. Seventy-five dollars. One could buy approximately three lattes with that. Or a slightly chipped mug.

The share price has tumbled 92.5% since the IPO. Ninety-two point five percent. It’s…a significant drop. They now have 3.57 million paying users, which sounds impressive, until you realize that’s a 16% decrease year over year. And total revenue is down 10%. It’s a cautionary tale, really. A reminder that just because something sounds good (empowering women! finding love! algorithms!) doesn’t mean it will translate into actual, sustainable profit.

Units of Hope Lost: Countless. Hours Spent Analyzing Charts: 8. Number of Times I’ve Considered Becoming a Goat Farmer: 3. It’s easy to get caught up in the hype, isn’t it? The promise of disruption, the allure of the new. But ultimately, the market is a cruel mistress. And sometimes, the best investment is simply a really good book. Or, you know, a goat.

2026-02-10 20:52

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