Lilly’s Little Fortune: A GLP-1 Drama

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Eli Lilly, you see, has been rather successful of late. One can hardly move for hearing about it. And the source of all this agreeable noise? A couple of drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, both dabbling in the GLP-1 market. Billions are changing hands, naturally. It’s all terribly modern. One trusts the shareholders are suitably amused.

However – and there’s always a ‘however’, isn’t there? – a certain amount of dependency on just two products does give one a slight headache. It’s a bit like building a rather splendid yacht on a foundation of spun sugar. Charming, while it lasts, but hardly reassuring when the competition starts circling. Especially given the price tag attached to the whole enterprise. One wonders if the market is being a trifle optimistic.

The Quarter’s Figures: Quite Good, Really

Last week’s results were, as one might say, perfectly adequate. Revenue for the last quarter came to $19.3 billion – a 43% increase. Mounjaro contributed $7.4 billion, and Zepbound, the younger of the two, a rather spirited $4.3 billion. The growth rate of the latter is particularly encouraging, though one does suspect it’s simply benefiting from a lower starting point. Still, it’s a pleasant surprise, isn’t it? The combined contribution – over 60% of the total – is, shall we say, substantial. It leaves one wondering if they’re relying a little too heavily on a couple of fashionable trends.

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Is the Price Justified? A Most Delicate Question

Lilly’s market capitalization now hovers around $950 billion, making it the most valuable healthcare company on the planet. Rather a lot of money, wouldn’t you agree? The price-to-earnings multiple of 46 is, admittedly, a bit steep. It suggests the market anticipates continued, rather dramatic growth. One hopes they’re not expecting miracles.

There’s a risk, naturally. But given Lilly’s early lead in the GLP-1 market, a premium valuation seems… reasonable. The stock may experience a wobble if competing products emerge. But if one is prepared to be patient – and a long-term view is always so much more civilized – I suspect it could still prove to be a rather rewarding investment. It’s all a bit of a game, really. And one must always play with a certain degree of detachment. After all, what’s life without a little speculation?

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2026-02-09 19:36