Shiny Rocks and Fool’s Gold

So, it is early 2026. People are still looking for the next big thing, and this time it’s dirt. Specifically, the dirt containing minerals. The idea is these minerals will power all our little gadgets, and also, possibly, weapons. It’s a story as old as time. And predictably, there’s money to be made. Or lost. Mostly lost, if history is any guide.

Here are three companies digging around, hoping to strike it rich. Or, at least, hoping someone else pays a lot for their rocks. Don’t get attached to any of them.

USA Rare Earth: A Government Check is a Beautiful Thing

USA Rare Earth. Sounds patriotic, doesn’t it? They’re trying to pull rare-earth magnets out of the ground, a business merger being their main accomplishment so far. They found fifteen out of seventeen rare-earth elements in a place called Round Top. That’s… a lot of elements. They’re hoping the government throws $1.6 billion their way. Which, realistically, is the only reason they’re still in business. It’s a good strategy, actually. Find something the government wants, then ask for a lot of money. So it goes.

They promise commercial production in early 2026. We’ll see. Promises are cheap. Dirt is expensive. And magnets, well, they just attract trouble.

TMC The Metals Company: Mining the Abyss

This one is… ambitious. They want to vacuum the ocean floor for nodules containing copper, nickel, cobalt, and manganese. It’s like a cosmic spring cleaning. They’ve made a deal with Korea Zinc to refine the stuff. That’s good. Refining is hard. Finding someone else to do the hard work is even better. They’re also counting on President Trump’s executive orders to smooth the way. Because regulations are for other people. So it goes.

Copper demand is supposedly going up. S&P Global says so. But supply is shrinking. That’s… convenient. It’s always convenient when demand goes up and supply goes down. It’s how things work.

MP Materials: Already Digging, Which is Something

MP Materials is different. They’re actually pulling stuff out of the ground right now. In California, of all places. They make neodymium-praseodymium, which sounds like a Pokémon. They’re expanding to heavy rare-earths. More elements. More complexity. They’ve also gotten over $500 million from the Department of Defense. A price floor, they call it. It’s nice to have friends in high places. So it goes.

A price floor. That means the government guarantees they’ll pay a certain amount, even if nobody else wants the stuff. It’s a beautiful thing, really. A guaranteed income, courtesy of the taxpayer. They’ll start commissioning a new facility in 2028. Or maybe not.

Which One Will Make You Rich? None of Them.

So, there you have it. Three companies, digging in the dirt, hoping to strike it rich. USA Rare Earth has the government’s money. TMC has a plan to vacuum the ocean floor. And MP Materials is already digging. For conservative investors, MP Materials is the least bad option. USA Rare Earth and TMC are for those who enjoy risk. Or delusion. So it goes.

The nation wants secure supply chains. That’s a good thing. But remember, a secure supply chain doesn’t necessarily mean a profitable one. And in the end, all these rocks will just end up as parts in some gadget you’ll replace in six months. It’s a beautiful, sad, and utterly predictable cycle. And we’re all just along for the ride.

2026-02-09 19:35

USA Rare Earth: A Government Check is a Beautiful Thing

MP Materials: Already Digging, Which is Something

Which One Will Make You Rich? None of Them.

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